Things look grim for the Indiana Pacers. Trailing the Oklahoma City Thunder 3-2 in the NBA Finals, the Pacers may now be without their superstar. Tyrese Haliburton’s availability is very much in question after Tuesday reports of a possible strained right calf and a needed MRI.
If Haliburton is limited or out, Indiana will face that much steeper of a challenge in Game 6. But that worry should also create betting value.
My Thunder vs. Pacers predictions were already pondering who would most benefit from a reduced workload for Haliburton. Let's get into my NBA picks before Game 6 tips off at 8:30 ET on Thursday, June 19.
Who will win Thunder vs Pacers Game 6?
It is difficult to conjure up a Pacers’ victory if Haliburton is as hurt as he looked in Game 5. The star point guard stopped trying to press off his right leg. He no longer had the ability to push off and cut left. The Thunder defense was not stupid. It focused Haliburton to his left, effectively taking away both his dominant hand and his good leg.
It is hard to imagine Haliburton not playing, but Tuesday’s report of worries of a calf strain make it clear, he is not going to be at his best. And without a brilliant Haliburton game, Oklahoma City should prevail.
He had averaged 18 points, 8.5 assists and 9.5 rebounds in the Pacers’ two wins in the Finals while shooting 50% from the field. Indiana is a deep roster, but it all stems from Haliburton.
His injury is as significant as it seems, maybe more so.
Moneyline prediction: Thunder will win (-260 at bet365)
Thunder vs Pacers prediction
My best bet: Andrew Nembhard Over 10.5 points (-110 at bet365)
Quite literally, this bet was nearly filed before Shams Charania tweeted Tuesday’s update on Tyrese Haliburton’s calf, the one saying an MRI was coming to “determine the severity of the strain.” Before that, this prop was priced at +100.
Juicing it to -110 is not an aggressive enough move.
The thought always was, “If Haliburton plays fewer minutes, who benefits?” The Indiana Pacers could certainly sideline Haliburton if the MRI shows worrying signs, but the team leader undoubtedly intends to at least try to play. Hence, “fewer minutes,” not a complete absence, a distinction that prop markets reflect.
Haliburton missed nine games this regular season. In those, two players’ stat lines showed distinct changes: Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard. Nembhard’s numbers should be the most replicable, given his usage rate jumped to 22.7% without Haliburton from 15.7% with him, per statmuse.com.
Most people turn their attention to T.J. McConnell when Haliburton is limited or out. And McConnell has had an excellent series, but he is best used as a change-of-pace hassle. When Haliburton was sidelined this season, McConnell’s numbers actually fell (9.3 points with vs. 7.3 points without; 52.9% from the field with vs. 42.9% without).
Furthermore, more McConnell will mean more defensive problems. McConnell cannot match up with any Oklahoma City Thunder guard, leaving the Pacers vulnerable on one end of the court no matter McConnell’s offensive benefits. There is a reason Indiana is -10 in McConnell’s 90 minutes this series. For context, Nembhard is -12 in 169 minutes.
Ignoring the final game of the season when Nembhard made only a token appearance while Haliburton sat it out entirely, Nembhard averaged 12.4 points without Haliburton in the lineup, clearing this prop in four of those seven games and scoring at least eight points in each game.
Nembhard, not McConnell, should carry more of a load if Haliburton is diminished. Nembhard did so in the regular season, and he is Indiana’s best defender, already, meaning his offensive usage is not pyrrhic.
Thunder vs Pacers same-game parlay
Andrew Nembhard Over 10.5 points
Obi Toppin Over 10.5 points
Pascal Siakam Over 20.5 points
Every thought here ties to Haliburton struggling. As a basketball fan, the hope is that he will find the wrap or massage or who-knows-what needed to be closer to 100% in Game 6. Logic says if someone was comfortable leaking the MRI need to Shams Charania, then Haliburton is going to struggle to play effectively, if play at all.
At that point, Indiana’s best lineup may feature these three, Aaron Nesmith and Myles Turner. Bennedict Mathurin has struggled to stay within himself in this series, and McConnell is a defensive liability, as already discussed. They will both play, but Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle should lean into this lineup, these three with Nesmith and Turner.
In that instance, that is distinctly more minutes for Obi Toppin. And when Nembhard is in charge of the offense, he tends to set up Pascal Siakam more often. Frankly, Siakam will be Indiana’s best offensive piece in a must-win game.
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Thunder vs Pacers odds
Thunder vs Pacers live odds
Thunder vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -4.5 | Indiana +4.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -200 | Indiana +174
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread had dabbled at -5.5, but mostly settled at -5 before the Haliburton news. Moving the spread another 1.5 points toward Oklahoma City would usually garner this handicapper to remind, “Buy on bad news, sell on good.” But in this instance, in a clinching scenario, that trusted axiom may be a bit thin.
- Much further reaction would be an overreaction. If this spread reaches +7, it may become a needed bet.
- The total naturally fell with the Haliburton news, dropping to 222.5. He is the engine of Indiana’s delightful offense. At best, it will not run on all cylinders without him.
Thunder vs Pacers trend
While Haliburton has not yet been ruled out as of Tuesday afternoon, it is still worth noting that Indiana went 2-7 ATS without him this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pacers.
How to watch Thunder vs Pacers
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Thursday, 6-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Thunder vs Pacers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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