The trick to handicapping Game 6 of the NBA Finals before we know Tyrese Haliburton’s genuine status is to find avenues that provide particular value if the most likely scenario occurs — Haliburton playing while limited or not playing at all — yet are not rendered hopeless if the Indiana Pacers superstar has somehow found the ability to push off with his right calf.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are positioned to win, but a lessened or absent Haliburton should help spring loose a particular piece for our NBA picks and Thunder vs. Pacers predictions.
My Thunder vs. Pacers same-game parlay is designed to thrive if Haliburton is sidelined, but still has a solid chance even if he is somehow near healthy at the 8:30 p.m. ET tip on Thursday, June 19.
Pacers vs Thunder SGP - June 19
Andrew Nembhard Over 10.5 points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 40+ points
T.J. McConnell Under 10.5 points
Less Tyrese Haliburton means more Andrew Nembhard. The duo played 57 games together this season, Nembhard having a usage rate of 15.7% and averaging 9.9 points. His usage rate has held pretty firm this postseason, 16.5% while averaging 12.1 points.
In seven genuine games without Haliburton — Nembhard played 13 minutes in the regular-season finale while Haliburton sat it out entirely — the usual defensive ace had a usage rate of 22.4% while averaging 12.4 points. He took 11 shots per game in those seven, compared to eight per in the 57 with Haliburton.
In other words, Nembhard has cleared this prop in 12 of 21 games this postseason. It is possible with or without Haliburton. But without Haliburton, it becomes rather likely.
More offensive work for Nembhard should demand that he spend less energy defensively. Assigning defensive responsibility of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to anyone else on Indiana’s roster is a risk, but it is a risk the Pacers need to take if relying on Nembhard to keep the offense in rhythm.
Can any other Indiana defender keep SGA from his preferred midrange pull-ups? Probably not.
And even if Haliburton somehow finds health, Gilgeous-Alexander could score 40, anyway. This is one game he will not exit early because of a hefty lead. Clinching moments hold greater priority.
One Indiana defender who cannot dream of slowing Gilgeous-Alexander is T.J. McConnell. He is, simply put, a defensive liability. If Haliburton can play well, then McConnell should see fewer minutes. If Haliburton cannot play well, then the Pacers are down a quality defender and should not risk added minutes for a defensive worry.
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