Before Tyrese Haliburton’s Game 6 playing status was thrown into doubt by worries of a strained calf — one severe enough that even the Indiana Pacers superstar admits would usually sideline him for weeks in the regular season — Pascal Siakam’s points prop was set at 20.5.
Following Tuesday’s updates on Haliburton, which suggest he’ll be limited at best in Game 6, that number moved slightly to 21.5.
But even with Oklahoma City’s elite defense, sportsbooks haven’t fully adjusted to the impact of Haliburton’s absence.
My NBA picks are backing Indiana’s other star to deliver — and my Pascal Siakam picks trust him to score. Someone has to carry the load. Tip-off is 8:30 ET on Thursday, June 19.
Pascal Siakam player prop picks
- Best bet
Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 points
(-115 at bet365) - SGP pick
Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 points
Pascal Siakam Under 1.5 threes
Pascal Siakam Over 0.5 blocks
(+700 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Pascal Siakam best bet
Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 points (-115 at bet365)
On the surface, this line makes sense. In 72 games alongside Haliburton this regular season, Pascal Siakam averaged 20.1 points. In six games without Haliburton, Siakam averaged 21.5 points. Right on the mark.
One of those six games was a bit of a schedule loss, the Indiana Pacers keeping Siakam to just 24 minutes. In the five games without Haliburton that Siakam played at least 25 minutes, he averaged 23.2 points.
And that showed in Game 5, with Haliburton so clearly limited — and “limited” may be a charitable way of phrasing it — Siakam scored 28 points on an efficient 9-of-15 shooting.
Some of Siakam’s success without Haliburton comes from Andrew Nembhard’s playmaking. Nembhard handles the ball much more without Haliburton around, and that should be true even if Haliburton attempts to play Thursday night.
Siakam’s usage rate hardly moves; he actually took 14.8 shots without Haliburton in the lineup compared to 15.2 with him. But he shoots better, up 3.5% from the field and 7.1% from deep. Logic says to credit Nembhard.
Regardless of who deserves that nod, the result is that Siakam scores more often. Indiana desperately needs him to do so in Game 6.
Pascal Siakam same-game parlay
Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 points
Pascal Siakam Under 1.5 threes
Pascal Siakam Over 0.5 blocks
Yes, this is as counterintuitive as a same-game parlay can get. But it holds up. In those five games without Haliburton that Siakam played at least 25 minutes, he averaged only 3.6 attempts from beyond the arc. Twice, he fell short of this prop.
Siakam does not live beyond the arc, certainly not without Haliburton’s drive-and-dish opportunities. Would the Pacers be delighted if Siakam hits three triples in this game? Absolutely. Is it reasonably likely he scores at least 22 points without hitting multiple shots from long range? It is certainly far more likely than the 20% implied chance of the +400 payout of just those two legs in this same-game parlay.
Adding in a blocked shot would not have made as much sense in the regular season when Siakam had only two in the five games of note and averaged just more than half a block per game across the season. But postseason defense requires a bit more intensity; Siakam has managed at least one block in every game of this series, totaling seven swats in five games.
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