Thanks to a monstrous outburst from Jalen Williams in Game 5, the Oklahoma City Thunder are on the precipice of an NBA title. The Indiana Pacers can extend the series to seven games with a home victory, but their star point guard is at less than 100%.
My Thunder vs Pacers props and NBA picks for Thursday, June 19, key in on the after-effects of Williams’ offensive eruption and Haliburton’s hampered right calf.
Best Thunder vs Pacers props
Holmgren o15.5 points (-115)- Williams u23.5 points (-120)
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McConnell o10.5 points (-105)
Thunder vs Pacers player props for June 19
Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Chet Holmgren’s home/road splits are particularly notable, so I’ll gladly target the Over for Thursday’s matchup at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The Oklahoma City Thunder's big man has averaged 15.6 points per game in the playoffs — 15.2 at home and 16.1 on the road. He’s scored at least 15 in five of nine road appearances.
Those home/road splits were even more pronounced in the regular season, as Holmgren averaged 13.2 points per game at home compared to 17 on the road. He compiled at least 15 points in 11 of 15 away from Paycom Center.
Jalen Williams is fresh off a 40-burger, and he and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander combined for 71 points in Game 5. The Indiana Pacers' defensive attention will be laser-focused on OKC’s dynamic duo, giving Holmgren some much-needed breathing room.
He’s averaged just 12.8 points in the Finals, but he’s been good for 17 per game in two on the road. I expect a strong showing, and this is my favorite prop of the night.
Jalen Williams Under 23.5 points (-120 at bet365)
J Dub has gone off for 24 or more in three straight games, including Monday’s incredible 40-point explosion. He couldn’t miss, as he knocked in 14 of 25 shots from the field and 3 of 5 from beyond the arc. That is not predictive of what's to come.
Williams averaged 21.6 points in the regular season, and he’s averaged 21.7 in the playoffs. Across 90 combined appearances, he’s hit the Under on this scoring line 55 times. He’s hit the Under in 11 of 21 in the playoffs.
Williams has scored fewer than 24 points far more often than he’s cleared that number, and I’m inclined to bet the Under.
He’ll be playing on the road, and the Pacers will surely put some respect on his name after his most recent exploits. Indiana’s defense will be scrapping to extend this series and keep its title hopes alive, and a major focus will be limiting Williams’ scoring.
T.J. McConnell Over 10.5 points (-105 at bet365)
I’m not chasing T.J. McConnell’s points line solely because of Tyrese Haliburton’s right calf injury. In fact, McConnell’s scoring numbers dipped when Haliburton missed time in the regular season, but his absence or limited minutes should still be a boon for McConnell’s scoring chances.
McConnell has played great basketball in the postseason, averaging nine points, including 9.9 at home and 8.3 on the road. He’s scored in double figures in 12 of 21 games overall, including seven of 10 at home. While playing on the road favors Holmgren, playing at home benefits McConnell.
McConnell came away with 18 points in 22 minutes in Game 5, including a 13-point third quarter that buoyed Haliburton as he literally and figuratively limped to just four points in the game. McConnell can reach 10 points even if his minutes don’t get a bump, but I suspect he’ll see some extra playing time in Game 6, making this a worthwhile bet.
His scoring line is set at 10.5 for -105 odds, but I like the alt line of 10+ at -110 just a bit more.
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