Until Tyrese Haliburton is not included among the Indiana Pacers’ starters, it should be assumed he'll try to play in Game 6. He has had too great a season and an even better postseason to willingly miss what could be the final game of the season.
However, his calf strain may simply prevent him from playing, or that first possession could quickly reveal he can play in appearance only. When pondering that flux, value can be found among Indiana's first basket possibilities. For that matter, this uncertainty can also provide value in finding the first points from the Oklahoma City Thunder.
My Thunder vs. Pacers first basket picks hinge entirely on assuming Haliburton is, at best, very much limited for Game 6.
Thunder vs Pacers first basket picks
Click on each name to jump to the full analysis
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Oklahoma City Thunder
First basket pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+600 at bet365)
Asking Andrew Nembhard to pick up more offensive workload while also defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would be foolish, and no one has ever called Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle a fool. He knows a point guard can pour only so much effort into defense if they're also expected to keep the offense humming.
So if Tyrese Haliburton is indeed significantly limited or entirely sidelined, Indiana may move Nembhard off Gilgeous-Alexander defensively, and doing so will obviously lead to more scoring chances for the MVP. That thought alone provides value in thinking SGA could score first for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
That thought is furthered by the knowledge that Gilgeous-Alexander made the first shot in 14 of 97 games this season and postseason, the best rate on the Thunder roster, despite having the third-highest NBA odds for Game 6.
If Nembhard is diligently defending SGA, then the deference to Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams makes sense, but if Haliburton is out or significantly limited, Nembhard’s priorities will shift, and that should give reason to bet on Shai for what may be the last time this year.
Indiana Pacers
First basket pick: Myles Turner (+800 at bet365)
When examining the odds available, the instinct was to bet on Andrew Nembhard to score Indiana’s first points, available at a lofty +1400 at bet365. Nembhard, not T.J. McConnell, should see the most increase in offensive responsibility if Tyrese Haliburton is out or significantly limited. In seven genuine games without Haliburton, Nembhard’s usage rate was 22.4%, compared to just 15.7% alongside Haliburton.
He took three more shots per game in those seven games. Surely, Nembhard is the best value here, right? Wrong.
Myles Turner played seven games without Haliburton this season. He took the first Pacers shot in four of them, making two of those. Compare that to taking the first shot in just four more games out of the 85 others that Turner has started alongside Haliburton in the regular season and postseason.
Bets should be placed on Nembhard to pick up the game-long workload if Haliburton is out or significantly limited, but in the immediate, look to Turner for a quick bucket.
Thunder vs Pacers first basket odds
- Jalen Williams (+450)
- Chet Holmgren (+500)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+600)
- Pascal Siakam (+700)
- Myles Turner (+800)
- Isaiah Hartenstein (+800)
- Aaron Nesmith (+1000)
- Lu Dort (+1100)
- Tyrese Haliburton (+1200)
- Andrew Nembhard (+1400)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
