The wonders this week focus on Tyrese Haliburton’s calf injury. Logic expects the Indiana Pacers superstar to do absolutely everything he can to play in Game 6, and sportsbooks reflect that by continuing to post his prop markets.
Obviously, those have adjusted for the likelihood that Haliburton is, at best, limited. But they have not adjusted properly across the board.
Looking at the latest Shai Gilgeous-Alexander odds, Haliburton’s possible absence would directly impact the MVP’s offensive possibilities, even if some see that as only a ripple effect.
My Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props focus on his points, where there may not be a ceiling if Indiana is without Haliburton. Read more in my NBA picks for Thursday, June 19.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
- Best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points
(-120 at bet365) - SGP pick
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 40+ points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 steals
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 0.5 blocks
(+650 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points (-120 at bet365)
On the surface, perhaps Tyrese Haliburton’s injury does not impact Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s offense. That has not been a common defensive assignment in these Finals.
But think a layer further. Without Haliburton, the Indiana Pacers need to rely on Andrew Nembhard that much more at point guard. In eight games without Haliburton this season, Nembhard’s usage rate jumped to 22.7% from 15.7% with Haliburton, per StatMuse.
If suddenly so dependent on Nembhard to initiate the offense, the Pacers may move him off Gilgeous-Alexander on the other end of the court to simply preserve some energy. There may not be a player in the NBA who has the energy to both defend the MVP and responsibly initiate the offense against a ball-pressuring defense for a full game.
And at that point, simply enough, cue SGA points for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This is a no-win scenario for Indiana. Maybe not as it pertains to the final result, but in the micro as it pertains to Nembhard’s duties without Haliburton on hand. Either risk repeated offensive turnovers with an uncertain ballhandler or expose yourself to Gilgeous-Alexander enjoying free run into his preferred mid-range pullups.
Sportsbooks have largely adjusted for Haliburton’s injury, no matter if he is limited or sidelined. However, they have not properly adjusted for what it may mean from Oklahoma City's MVP.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 40+ points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 steals
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 0.5 blocks
One could easily argue there is more value in betting SGA to score at least 40 points at +240 than there is in taking him to reach 34 points at -120.
A few more buckets at that much of a payout bump? That should always garner notice, but particularly in a closeout game where it is hard to imagine Gilgeous-Alexander leaving the court early, no matter the size of a lead.
Adding in some defensive assets makes sense because Indiana’s offense is simply not going to be as good, regardless of Haliburton's status. SGA has also snagged multiple steals in four of the five games of this series, adding at least one block in four.
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