The Lakers weren't the only team shifting the NBA landscape today. Right alongside the massive LeBron James fallout across town, the Clippers completely shook up the NBA championship odds by shipping Kawhi Leonard back to Toronto for a highly anticipated second stint with the Raptors.
While the Clippers reload with Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, and a hefty haul of future draft picks, Toronto resets its deck for an all-out title push. By leaning back into their 2019 championship blueprint, the Raptors are injecting instant drama into the Eastern Conference hierarchy, laying down a direct challenge to the New York Knicks.
Despite that aspect, this move has increased the Raptors' NBA championship odds to 6% (+1566), but where does that slot them among other contenders?
Let's take a look.
NBA Championship odds 2026-27
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of Covers' most trusted prediction market apps.
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Raptors NBA title odds at a glance
 |
Win Probability | |
|---|---|---|
 Raptors |
+1566 | 6% |
At 35 years old, Kawhi’s degenerative knee issues and chronic ankle sprains mean his availability is a permanent question mark. Even though he’s coming off a highly productive All-NBA campaign with the Clippers (averaging 27.9 PPG in 65 games), history shows he requires intensive load management just to make it to April intact.
Kawhi is entering the final year of his contract, carrying a massive $50.3 million cap hit. He is reportedly seeking a long-term contract extension beyond this season — something the Clippers refused to offer. Giving up premium foundational assets like Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, and multiple draft picks for an aging, injury-prone superstar on an expiring contract could easily backfire if his health falters.
But rumors indicate that Leonard is highly receptive to the move and is open to signing an extension that would allow him to finish his career where he won his second Finals MVP. Returning to Canada wouldn't just be a temporary rental like 2018; it would be a definitive commitment to play out his remaining elite years and retire in a Raptors uniform.
"This is a real, balance-of-power shifting trade. This is the first major transaction that has changed the balance of power."@WindhorstESPN says the Raptors are ready to contend after trading for Kawhi Leonard 👀 pic.twitter.com/KYLK0IPNri
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) June 30, 2026
Raptors projected starting lineup
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
| Point guard | Immanuel Quickley |
| Shooting guard | RJ Barrett |
| Small forward | Kawhi Leonard |
| Power forward | Scottie Barnes |
| Center | Jakob Poeltl |
Kawhi Leonard gives Toronto a terrifyingly well-rounded core alongside Quickley, Barrett, and Barnes. Throw in the versatility of sophomore breakout Collin Murray-Boyles at small-ball center, and the Raptors instantly position themselves to hunt for a top seed in the East.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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