Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put his name alongside some of the greatest NBA Finals performers with his efforts in the first two games of this year’s championship round.
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s star guard scored a combined 72 points in the opening two contests, including 34 points in a victory over the Indiana Pacers in Game 2.
With his point total market creeping up, my Shai Gilgeous-Alexander picks believe it's time to buy back the Under with the series swinging to Indiana.
Find out why as I break down my NBA picks for Wednesday, June 11.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Under 34.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Taking the Under points on a star player is never comfortable.
Taking the Under on one as hot as SGA — the NBA MVP no less — is like sitting through a geriatric version of “Love Island”, starring your grandma. Look no further than Sunday’s sweat.
Anyone who grabbed Under 34.5 points for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 2 just burned through a Costco-sized case of Pepto Bismol.
The Oklahoma City Thunder superstar knocked down a free throw with just under four minutes left in the fourth quarter to sit at 34 points on the night. Under backers held their collective breath on a missed 12-foot jumper about a minute later before SGA was subbed out at the 2:42 mark.
Phew.
Despite still scoring 34 points in 36 minutes, Gilgeous-Alexander was much more passive in Game 2.
He shot the ball only 21 times — compared to 30 FGAs in Game 1 — and didn’t attack the rim as much, instead kicking the ball out and generating eight assists (after only three in Game 1). He made up for his lack of looks at the foul line, drawing contact and going to the stripe a dozen times (making 11 of those freebies, compared to 7 for 8 FTA in Game 1).
With the series heading in Gainbridge Fieldhouse, OKC’s offensive numbers are expected to take at least a slight dip.
The Thunder have put up 122.7 points per home stand all year, but that number does slide to 116.1 as a visitor. That road output is down to 109 points per road stop in the playoffs. Gilgeous-Alexander’s numbers also take a hit away from home, scoring 28.3 points per away game in the tournament, compared to 31.8 ppg in OKC.
Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be the focal point for the Indiana Pacers' defense, and with three days between games, Indiana has ample time to watch film and scheme up a way to slow down SGA and get the ball out of his hands.
Early Game 3 projections call for 29.7 to 31.1 points from SGA on Wednesday night. And looking at the prop markets for Game 3, we’re seeing some movement away from the opening number of 34.5, with some shops down to 33.5 O/U.
Based on those models, SGA’s scoring forecast should be around 32 points, which should have the Under 34.5 O/U priced at -168.
I’ll be squirming through every OKC possession, taking the Under 34.5 -115 at bet365.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Under 34.5 points
5+ assists
5+ rebounds
Gilgeous-Alexander was less aggressive in his offensive approach in Game 2, and while he can still have a big game, projections sit short of 35 points for Game 3.
SGA registered eight dimes in Game 2 and was more of a facilitator, with 15.0 potential assists. Indiana will try to take the ball out of his hands, and projections sit at 6.5 dimes.
Shai smashed the glass for five rebounds in both matchups so far. He’s boasting 8.5 rebounding chances for the series, and models sit north of five boards in Game 3.
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Thunder vs Pacers betting resources
- Thunder vs. Pacers prediction
- Thunder vs. Pacers props & best bets
- Thunder vs. Pacers same-game parlay
- Thunder vs. Pacers first basket picks
- Tyrese Haliburton predictions
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