Game 1 of an NBA playoff series is a tricky spot for prop bettors. And that’s what we have tonight, with the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks tossing up the ball on their Round 2 set.
In the postseason, team tactics change game-to-game and bettors who can get ahead of those adjustments can find value in the player props. But in series openers, there’s an aura of mystery around each teams’ approach.
With regular season meetings and carry over from the previous series swaying the market, the unknowns of Game 1 do level the playing field between bookies and bettors. Hopefully, we can take advantage of it.
Here are my best NBA picks and prop predictions for 76ers vs. Knicks on May 4.
Best 76ers vs Knicks props for Game 1
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Joel Embiid |
Under 9.5 Rebounds | -135 |
 Mikal Bridges |
Over 1.5 Threes | +130 |
| Josh Hart |
Over 4.5 Assists | -112 |
Game 1 Prop #1: Joel Embiid Under 9.5 Rebounds
Joel Embiid’s return was the turning point in the Philadelphia 76ers’ series win over the Celtics, specifically on defense.
Embiid played drop coverage on screen action and plugged up the paint, allowing his teammates to put pressure on the perimeter with little threat from Boston’s bigs from outside.
Against the New York Knicks, however, Embiid matches up with Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart, who are comfortable playing away from the paint and can stretch the floor. The Knicks are running Towns as a point forward out of the high post and Hart has an active engine on offense.
While Embiid was a beast on the boards versus Boston, recording double figures in three of four games, he won’t be in primary rebounding position in this Round 2 series. And with a sore hip (plus bum knees and a recent appendectomy) along with quick turnaround to travel to MSG, Embiid’s mobility isn’t great in Game 1.
Player projections sit between 7.2 and 11.5 but the majority of models are short of nine rebounds, with my number at 8.6 boards from Philly’s big.
Game 1 Prop #2: Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 Threes
No one caught more flack in the first round than Mikal Bridges.
New York’s shooting guard was MIA for most of the series with Atlanta, scoring 11 or less in the first five games before suddenly showing up with 24 points on 10-for-12 shooting in Game 6. That includes a 2-for-2 mark from beyond the arc.
Bridges, who shot just 6 for 17 from 3-point range in Round 1, brings that momentum in this matchup with Philadelphia.
The 76ers did a great job clamping down on Boston’s studs from outside and while the Celtics struggled from distance it wasn’t all Philly’s doing. Almost 83% of Boston’s 3-point attempts came without a defender within at least four feet, as the C’s just whiffed on open looks.
Philadelphia presents a tougher interior defense than the smaller Hawks, which will push New York to the perimeter and force the Knicks to fire up from deep. Bridges, who shot less than three triples per game in Round 1, averages more than five 3-point attempts per home game on the year.
Player forecasts range from 1.4 to 1.9 makes for Bridges with the bulk of models short of two triples. But this is a bet I’m willing to go against the grain with, given the matchup and plus-money return.
Game 1 Prop #3: Josh Hart Over 4.5 Assists
As mentioned above, Josh Hart could draw Joel Embiid as his primary defender, should the 76ers opt to throw smaller forwards at Towns.
Hart is very active on the offense and isn’t afraid to mix it up in the paint, but he’s not going to find a clean look at the rim with the Sixers’ 7-footer shadowing him.
New York will try to draw Embiid out and Hart will be a conduit for spot-up shooters or cutters to the rim. He dished out five or more assists in the first three games against Atlanta and finished the series averaging 4.3 assists on 5.5 potential dimes.
In three regular season matchups with Philadelphia, Hart enjoyed some of his best passing performances. He recorded six, seven, and nine helpers in those outings. His projections for Game 1 bounce between 4.6 and 5.4 assists with my number at five dimes tonight.
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