Hitting the last-second winner in Game 1 should keep Tyrese Haliburton from any criticisms in these NBA Finals.
However, he has yet to play well through two games. His 10 rebounds in Game 1 then fell to just three in Game 2, and the PG hasn't dished out more than six assists in either outing.
My focus on Tyrese Haliburton's odds examines all aspects of his game, with my NBA picks expanding on his playmaking for Game 3.
Tip comes at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, June 11.
Tyrese Haliburton player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Tyrese Haliburton best bet
Over 8.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
Role players shoot better at home. Of all our trusted basketball axioms, this is the one we question the least. It is a psychological claim, yet one that is regularly backed up. Just look at these playoff splits.
- Myles Turner has shot 51.5% from deep at home, compared to just 28.2% on the road.
- Pascal Siakam has hit 50% of his 3-pointers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, an improvement on his already impressive 40.6% away from the building.
- Obi Toppin has hit 36.8% of his long-range looks at home, but just 30.6% on the highway.
Role players shoot better at home, and that often means primary players end up with better stats, as well.
If Turner, Siakam, and Toppin can be expected to hit a couple more 3-pointers in Indianapolis — they've hit 1.3 more per game this postseason, so not quite a “couple” — that very well may be a couple more assists for Haliburton.
Before this series, Hali was averaging 9.5 assists per game in the postseason, clearing this prop in 10 of 16 games. Dishing out six assists in each of the first two outings is not reason enough to knock this prop down to 8.5. If Indiana’s role players make just a few more shots, Haliburton should justify this plus-money bet.
After all, there is a reason the star PG has averaged 9.8 assists at home this postseason, compared to just 9.0 on the road. Role players shoot better at home.
Tyrese Haliburton same-game parlay
Over 8.5 assists
Over 2.5 turnovers
Under 2.5 threes
At first glance, this same-game parlay’s payout seems escalated, but quick math says it is right on target as if every leg of this was independent. Of course, they aren’t.
Every turnover Haliburton commits removes an opportunity for an assist. Then again, every assist Haliburton delivers removes an opportunity at a 3-pointer. Still with me?
So, let’s consider those a wash as it pertains to the payout’s value.
Haliburton has committed at least three turnovers in both games of the NBA Finals, and his usage is not about to decline. When you handle the ball as much as he does, turnovers are simply par for the course against Oklahoma City.
He has shot 5 of 15 from deep in this series, exactly his postseason-long average, too. Haliburton is capable of getting hot, but mostly, his slow release gives Thunder defenders time to scramble toward his shots.
That is their defensive design, and the Pacers are better served in this series by Haliburton moving the ball rather than hoisting it from deep.
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Thunder vs Pacers betting resources
- Thunder vs. Pacers prediction
- Thunder vs. Pacers props & best bets
- Thunder vs. Pacers same-game parlay
- Thunder vs. Pacers first basket picks
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander predictions
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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