The San Antonio Spurs see their first action in a week when they open their Round 2 series with the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.
While San Antonio is well rested and ready, Minnesota is licking multiple wounds — none deeper than missing superstar Anthony Edwards heading into Game 1 tonight.
My Timberwolves vs. Spurs props try to read the tea leaves for this Western Conference clash. Here are my best NBA picks and prop predictions for T-Wolves vs. Spurs on May 4.
Best Timberwolves vs Spurs props for Game 1
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Rudy Gobert |
Over 8.5 points | +102 |
| Jaden McDaniels |
Over 2.5 assists | -105 |
 Devin Vassell |
Over 12.5 points | -112 |
Game 1 Prop #1: Rudy Gobert Over 8.5 points
It’s May 4th. You didn’t think you could get out of here without reading at least one “Star Wars” reference, did you?
Veteran Rudy Gobert goes up against his padawan and fellow Frenchman Victor Wembanyama, giving us “Obi-Wan vs. Anakin” vibes. And while I don’t think Gobert is going to leave Wemby sliced, diced and smoldering on the edge of a lava river, the Minnesota Timberwolves center can strike in the scoring column.
Gobert scored in double figures in three of the six matchups with Denver in Round 1, with his points prop bouncing between 9.5 and 10.5 O/U in that series.
His Game 1 total is 8.5 O/U with the Over priced at plus-money, anchored in his regular season results versus the San Antonio Spurs. Gobert played the Spurs only twice, putting up two and eight points — the latter coming without Wembanyama in San Antonio’s lineup.
The T-Wolves are without Donte DiVincenzo, Anthony Edwards, and potentially Ayo Dosunmu for the series opener, leaving touches up for grabs and a need for the frontcourt to pick up the scoring slack.
Projections are positive for Gobert, ranging from 10.7 to as high as 11.7. That's more than enough to get past this modest ask for Minnesota’s big man.
Game 1 Prop #2: Jaden McDaniels Over 2.5 assists
T-Wolves forward Jaden McDaniels picked up the scoring slack with Edwards out versus Denver but won’t find the same success in the paint against Wembanyama and the Spurs.
Daniels becomes more of an inside-out passer versus San Antonio, drawing in the defense and finding open hands on the perimeter. Minnesota was able to attack the rim with the Nuggets missing Aaron Gordon, sending Daniels’ touches through the roof, but now he becomes more of a drive-and-kick facilitator.
He posted assist totals of five, three, and one in three regular season matchups with the Spurs and finished with three assists in all but one of the six games versus Denver in Round 1. He'll dominate the ball, considering the missing pieces for Minnesota, but will be forced to give it up more in Game 1.
His assists forecasts for tonight aren’t bullshit on Daniels' distributing, ranging from 1.7 to a couple projections at 2.9. However, with the adjustments the T-Wolves must make on offense and an empty backcourt, I’m on the high side of Daniels’ dimes tonight.
Game 1 Prop #3: Devin Vassell Over 12.5 points
The Spurs roll out a smaller lineup and with the injuries to the Minnesota backcourt, San Antonio will try to push pace and put the lumbering Timberwolves on their heels.
That means fastbreaks and transition off turnovers and long rebounds. Devin Vassell thrives in the open floor and is one of the Spurs’ best fastbreak attackers.
He started Round 1 strong, scoring 15 and 16 points in the opening two games on a collective 11-for-29 shooting as well as picking up points at the foul line. His usage slimmed in the final three outings versus Portland, closing out the series with outputs of 11, 11, and 10 points.
Minnesota’s defensive scheme will see it send top perimeter defender Jaden McDaniels after De’Aaron Fox, which leaves Vassell guarded by Terrence Shannon Jr. or Mike Conley (or a hobbled Dosunmu) — neither are great defenders.
Player models for Vassell all sit north of his scoring total of 12.5 O/U, ranging from 13.0 to a ceiling of 15.0 points. My number boils down to 14.3 points tonight.
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