The Indiana Pacers need to avoid falling behind in these NBA Finals.
That is always a want, but it is more of an imperative when facing a powerhouse like the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Needing to win three out of the next five games is a challenging enough task. Losing Game 3 and then needing to win three out of the next four games would be nearly impossible.
My Thunder vs. Pacers predictions before Game 3 bet on that kind of desperation.
Read more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, June 11.
Thunder vs Pacers SGP - June 11
Pacers +5
Pacers team total Over 111.5
Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 assists
What do we like to say? Good teams win, great teams cover, right?
Well then, as good as the Oklahoma City Thunder may be, they are far from great when on the road. Oklahoma City has gone 0-7 against the spread on the road this postseason. And the reality is, the Thunder have been worse compared to expectations than even that 0-7 ATS record reflects.
Oklahoma City has fallen short of bookmakers’ expectations by 14 points per game in those seven road games. If wanting to get more dramatic, the Thunder are just 4-3 outright on the road this postseason despite being favored in all seven games.
Taking the Indiana Pacers on the moneyline at +180 instead of the spread would jump this same-game parlay’s payout to +450.
That may be extreme, but doubting Oklahoma City on the road makes some sense. Their spurts of turnovers-into-transition buckets turn home crowds into frenzies. On the road, those spurts gain less momentum, if they happen at all.
OKC opponents have gone 4-2-1 toward their team total Overs this postseason, one of those Unders coming by only a bucket. Some of that opposing onslaught comes from the truth that role players shoot better at home. Oklahoma City continues to give up looks from deep as part of its defensive scheme.
But when opponents are more likely to make those shots at home, it leads to both points toward a total and assists for the primary playmaker. Indiana’s primary playmaker is Tyrese Haliburton, already averaging nearly an assist more per game at home than on the road this postseason.
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