The NBA Finals comes to Gainbridge Fieldhouse for Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers on Wednesday.
Indiana left Oklahoma City with a 1-1 series split and will try to capitalize on home court for the next two contests, boasting a 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread record as a host this postseason.
Guard Tyrese Haliburton was the reason this series is even tied, and my Thunder vs. Pacers predictions focus on what he'll do back home. Find out more in my NBA picks for June 11.
Who will win Thunder vs Pacers Game 3?
After getting tossed around in Game 2, Indiana returns home as a 5.5-point underdog in Game 3. Moneyline odds give the Pacers a 36% implied win probability on Wednesday night.
Was the Game 2 result a product of Indiana being happy to get out of OKC with a split? Perhaps that tempered the “comeback” spirit we’ve seen from Indiana. The Thunder may be the favorites, but I believe Indiana can win this one outright.
Thunder vs Pacers prediction
My best bet: Tyrese Haliburton 15+ points/7+ assists (+100 at bet365)
Tyrese Haliburton put up 17 points and six assists in the Game 2 loss, with the Indiana Pacers' point guard scoring most of those tallies in the second half when the game was out of reach.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have done a solid job of slowing him down through two games, with Haliburton averaging 15.5 points and six assists so far.
Haliburton hasn’t been as aggressive with his field goal attempts in those games in OKC, shooting only 13 times in each outing. He also hasn’t been able to get to the foul line — once.
After averaging more than three free throws through the first three rounds, Hali has failed to get to the stripe against the Thunder.
If Indiana is going to counter Oklahoma City’s attack, Haliburton needs to take the offense by the horns and push this OKC defense. That means looking for his shot but also drawing defenders and creating opportunities for others.
For the series, Haliburton has done a reasonable job as a distributor. His advanced stats show 13.0 and 15.0 potential assists in the first two games, with those 28 chances manifesting into just 12 actual assists.
Indiana’s other guys have to do a better job cashing in on those set-ups. The team shot just 45% from the field in Game 2, bogged down by a 15-for-43 “brickfest” in the first half before coming back around in the final 24 minutes.
The return home will help Haliburton & Co. in Game 3. On the entire year (regular and postseason), the Pacers own the fourth-highest effective shooting rate at home (57.2%) and boast the second-best assist-to-FGM rate (66.6%) of all playoff teams.
As for Haliburton, he’s averaging 9.8 dimes per home stand in the postseason, powered by 15.8 potential assists in those showings. His scoring output sits north of 18 points per game in Gainbridge Fieldhouse for the tournament.
Game 3 player models for Haliburton range from 17.7 to 20.3 points along with 8.1 to 10.4 assists, with playing time as high as 39 minutes. Given the shorter spread for this swap in venues, the game script says Wednesday’s tilt will be tighter than the previous two clashes, and his minutes will max out.
Haliburton’s player prop markets for scoring opened as low as 16.5 O/U but are surging upwards to 17.5 points. His assist market sits at 7.5 O/U with the Over juiced as high as -140 while some sharper books have jumped to 8.5 dimes.
I’m combining milestone markets at bet365 into a same-game parlay for Haliburton, asking for only 15+ points and 7+ assists. Given projections and touches, this seems like a low bar with a solid return at EVEN money in Game 3.
This same SGP is priced as high as -125 at some other books.
Thunder vs Pacers same-game parlay
Tyrese Haliburton 15+ points
Tyrese Haliburton 7+ assists
Pacers +5.5
Game models sit north of 15 points for Haliburton, who needs to be more aggressive with his offense if the Pacers are going to counter-punch OKC’s attack.
Haliburton’s potential assists sit at 14.0 for the series; he just needs his teammates to make good on those set-ups. With the game in Gainbridge, I expect Indiana to shoot much better.
Indiana is a tough out on its own floor, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS at home in the playoffs. Oklahoma City is 0-7 ATS as road chalk in the tournament.
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Thunder vs Pacers odds
Thunder vs Pacers live odds
Thunder vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -5 | Indiana +5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -200 | Indiana +165
- Over/Under: Over 228 | Under 228
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- After blowing away Indiana in Game 2, the Thunder opened as 5-point road chalk and jumped to -5.5 with early opinion on OKC.
- The Over/Under for Game 3 opened at 228 points and bumped to 228.5 O/U with initial action on the Over.
- Covers Consensus data shows 54% of early picks taking the points with the home side, while 68% of early total picks like the Over.
Thunder vs Pacers trend
Indiana is 8-4 SU and ATS as an underdog in the playoffs. Oklahoma City is 4-3 SU and 0-7 ATS as a road favorite in the tournament. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pacers.
How to watch Thunder vs Pacers
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Wednesday, 6-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Thunder vs Pacers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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