The Oklahoma City Thunder did what the Oklahoma City Thunder tend to do in Game 2, beating the Indiana Pacers by 16 points in a game that was not really that close. The Thunder led by 18 points at halftime and 19 entering the fourth quarter, never letting the Pacers mount a run to overcome an ugly second quarter.
Oklahoma City stuck to its recipe in that win, still encouraging an excessive amount of 3-point attempts from Indiana. My Thunder vs. Pacers props and NBA picks start out by expecting that to continue yet again. Tip comes at 8:30 ET on Wednesday, June 11.
Best Thunder vs Pacers props
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Obi Toppin o1.5 threes (+130) -
Alex Caruso o9.5 points (-115) - Lu Dort u8.5 points (-115)
Thunder vs Pacers player props for June 11
Obi Toppin Over 1.5 threes (+130 at bet365)
Do not overthink this. Obi Toppin went only 1-of-5 from deep in Game 2, costing this prop. But he took five 3-pointers. The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to continue giving him those looks. The Thunder base their entire defensive scheme on allowing 3s that are open by the exact definition of the word, but not as open as they initially seem. Rushing those shooters has worked for Oklahoma City, enjoying the best defense in the NBA this season.
Rushing Toppin did not work in Game 1. He hit 5-of-8 attempts from beyond the arc, a crucial piece of that series-opening upset. And still, the Thunder gave him five looks from deep in Game 2.
That is not going to change. Toppin is going to continue to have looks from 3. And he should shoot better at home. This postseason, Toppin has made 36.8% of his threes at home, compared to just 30.6% of his attempts on the road.
Role players play better at home is a fact, albeit one defying exact descriptions of its logic. That uptick in Toppin’s shooting makes it more likely than not that he hits multiple 3-pointers if he takes five of them. It may seem foolish to base a bet on someone like Toppin shooting five times from deep, but it was not an accident that he did so in both games in Oklahoma City. It is the Thunder’s design.
Alex Caruso Over 9.5 points (--115 at bet365)
Why does Alex Caruso’s points prop remain below double digits? Sure, it could not be closer to double digits, but keeping it below 10 is a mistake by oddsmakers.
Caruso has averaged more than 23 minutes per game this postseason, a number that jumps to nearly 26 minutes when removing three short nights. Those nights were all massive blowouts, two in the Thunder’s favor and one against it. Given the stakes of the NBA Finals, even a blowout may not clear either bench.
Playing 26 minutes per night effectively makes Caruso an Oklahoma City starter. Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Caruso all see minutes in the mid-20s, emphases depending somewhat on matchups.
Caruso has averaged 9.6 points per game this postseason, a number that jumps to 11.1 when removing those three short nights. Caruso is more of a veteran than broadly realized, 31 years old and in his eighth NBA season. He brings the Thunder a steadiness that no one else on the roster can.
Thus, it is not a surprise that Caruso has cleared this prop in 10 of 15 games in which he played more than 12 minutes this postseason.
If Caruso’s points prop ticks up much further, it will lose pertinent value. But as long as it sits below double digits, it should be seen as a must-bet.
Lu Dort Under 8.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Lu Dort looked like he had unlocked Oklahoma City’s offense this season. The defensive ace hit 41.2% of his 3-pointers on 5.8 attempts per game. If he could keep that up in his career, he would be one of the most impactful two-way players in the NBA.
Sure, he still averaged only 10.1 points, but let that speak to how excellent a defender Dort is. If he could hit 40% of his 3s on strong volume shooting, combining that with his defense would make him one of the most valuable commodities in the NBA.
Welcome back to reality this postseason, it seems. Dort has continued to shoot, taking 6.3 attempts from beyond the arc per game through 18 games. Hitting just 32.5% of them can hardly be defended with sample-size concerns. Dort has taken 114 threes in these playoffs. That is enough of a sample size to think his shooting has not actually leveled up.
And when Dort’s shooting cannot be trusted, he becomes an offensive liability for Oklahoma City. Yes, the Thunder won easily in Game 2 despite him going just 1-of-3 from deep and scoring three total points, but Dort was a -3 in a game Oklahoma City always controlled.
He still needs to play. Dort is the Thunder’s best counter to Tyrese Haliburton controlling the game. But that has become Dort’s sole focus this postseason as his shooting has regressed to the levels he was known for in the first four seasons of his career.
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Thunder vs Pacers betting resources
- Thunder vs. Pacers prediction
- Thunder vs. Pacers same-game parlay
- Thunder vs. Pacers first basket picks
- Tyrese Haliburton predictions
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander predictions
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