Padres vs Giants Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst 16+ years betting experience
Updated: May 4, 2026 , 12:21 PM ET • 4 min read

Parker's predictions: Randy Vasquez navigates reeling San Fran lineup to hand Giants a seventh consecutive loss.

MLB

Match starts: 9 hrs
SD
52 %
SF
48 %
EXPERT PICK - MONEYLINE
San Diego -130 San Diego -130
Read Analysis
MLB San Diego Padres Randy Vasquez
Photo By - Reuters Connect. San Diego Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez.

The San Diego Padres visit the San Francisco Giants for a three-game NL West showdown at Oracle Park beginning Monday, May 4.

My top Padres vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks are calling for San Fran to lose a seventh consecutive game tonight.

Who will win Padres vs Giants today: Padres moneyline (-130)

The San Francisco Giants are last in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and are turning to Trevor McDonald for his first start of the season Monday.

McDonald sports a worrisome 5.40 ERA and 6.24 xFIP across 15 minor-league innings with Triple A Sacramento, while the San Diego Padres have sneaky righty Randy Vasquez on the bump.

While Vasquez has had some hiccups, it’s hard to argue with his 2.94 ERA and 3.76 xFIP while holding opponents to a .665 OPS through six starts.

Covers COVERS INTEL: A large part of San Diego Padres starter Randy Vasquez’s early success is his 12.4 swinging-strike percentage checking in miles above his 6.7% mark from 2025.

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Padres vs Giants Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-132)

The Giants aren’t the only team struggling against righties, with the Friars ranking 22nd in wOBA and also playing to the Under in 29 of their past 50 road games (+7.35 Units / 13% ROI).

Additionally, San Fran has only scored 2.5 runs per game while losing eight of its past 10, and San Diego has scored just 2.6 per during its active 4-1 slump.

Neil Parker's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 17-9, +9.23 units
  • Over/Under bets: 9-6, +2.33 units

Padres vs Giants odds

  • Moneyline: Padres -135 | Giants +115
  • Run line: Padres -1.5 (+120) | Giants +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Padres vs Giants trend

The Padres have won 31 of their last 50 games (+8.85 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants.

How to watch Padres vs Giants and game info

Location Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
Date Monday, May 4, 2026
First pitch 9:45 p.m. ET
TV Padres.TV, NBC Sports Bay Area
Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez
(3-0, 2.94 ERA)
Giants starting pitcher Trevor McDonald
(0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Padres vs Giants latest injuries

Padres vs Giants weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

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