Yankees vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Gerrit Cole at Plus Money Just Too Good to Ignore

Yes, the Yankees suffered a tough loss last night. Yes, they're missing some of their best players. Yes, Boston is the better team. But we're getting one of the best pitchers in the game at plus money, so our MLB picks are with New York tonight.

Posted: Jul 23, 2021 11:25 AM ET Updated: Jul 23, 2021 11:25 AM ET Est Time: 4 min
Gerrit Cole New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

One of baseball's greatest rivalries continues on Friday night as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox play the second contest in a four-game set at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox came from behind to win a thrilling contest in extra innings last night and MLB betting lines have them installed as slim -120 home favorites for today's game. 

Here are our best free Yankees vs. Red Sox picks and predictions for Friday, July 23, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. 

Yankees vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Friday, July 23, 2021
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: NESN, WPIX

Yankees vs Red Sox odds

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Yankees vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Gerrit Cole (10-4, 2.63 ERA): There were questions about how well Cole would be able to perform given the league's recent crackdown on sticky substances — especially when he was rocked in consecutive outings following the imposing of the new rules. But the AL Cy Young favorite put those concerns to rest with his last two performances, shutting down a pair of elite offenses in the Red Sox and Astros by holding them to a total of one run and striking out 23 through 15 innings. 

Eduardo Rodriguez (7-5, 5.19 ERA): Rodriguez has a winning record this season but that has a lot to do with the run support he's been getting. The lefty has a less than impressive 1.33 WHIP with an OBA of .275 in 18 starts on the year. That said, he's coming off a terrific performance against the Yankees last Friday, when he pitched 5 2-3 innings of shutout ball. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Yankees: Gary Sanchez C (probable), Aaron Judge RF (Out), Luke Voit 1B (Out), Gio Urshela 3B (Out), Jonathan Loaisiga RP (Out), Miguel Andujar 3B (Out).
Red Sox: Christian Arroyo 3B (Out), Marwin Gonzalez 3B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 12-4-3 in Boston's last 19 games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.

Moneyline pick

The Red Sox came back to beat the Yankees last night but are still an unimpressive 4-6 in their last 10 games. That loss snapped a four-game win streak for a New York side that is looking to make a strong push in the second half of the season. Boston is still in first place in the AL East with a 59-38 record, one game ahead of the Rays and eight games ahead of the third-place Yankees. 

New York has been surprisingly mediocre at the plate this season ranking just 13th in the majors with an OPS of .719. Although it has been hitting better lately, the lineup is currently missing its best player in Aaron Judge, along with a couple of other key pieces. 

Frankly, that shouldn't even matter tonight because New York has a massive edge when it comes to starting pitching. The Red Sox will give the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez and his 5.19 ERA... while the Yankees will have one of the best pitchers in the world toeing the rubber. 

That's right, Gerrit Cole gets the start for New York today and he's 10-4 with a 2.63 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 120 innings this year. Cole has been dominant in his last two starts, which includes a 3-1 victory against Boston last Saturday. And he's simply been the best and most consistent pitcher in the AL over the last three years, finishing as a Top-5 finalist for the Cy Young Award each season.

I don't care that the Yankees have struggled at Fenway this season, or that the Red Sox are one of the best hitting teams in the majors, if you can grab an elite pitcher like Cole at plus money you do it. 

PREDICTION: Yankees (+100)

Over/Under pick

Rodriguez isn't having the greatest season for Boston but his expected ERA of 3.65 is far better than his actual ERA of 5.19, which suggests that he's having a bit of bad luck considering the quality of contact he allows. The southpaw has also thrown well in three starts against the Yankees this season, pitching to a 2.65 ERA with an opponent batting average of .190 across 17 innings.

Both teams also have strong bullpens with New York relievers ranking second in the majors in OBA (.219) and fourth in WHIP (1.18), while Boston's bullpen ranks seventh in the majors with a collective ERA of 3.63.

The Yankees rank just 21st in the majors with 4.19 runs per game and getting by without Judge and his team-leading 21 home runs and 47 RBI won't be easy. Likewise, while the BoSox are one of the league's highest-scoring teams, they'll find it difficult to get on the board against Cole who has a WHIP of just 0.94. 

Keep in mind that the Under is 4-0 in Boston's last four games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and the O/U is 1-4 in Boston's previous five contests against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take the Under tonight. 

PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (+101)

Yankees vs Red Sox betting card

  • Yankees ML (+100)
  • Under 8.5 (+101)

Picks made on 7/23/2021 at 11 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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