Blue Jays vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Matz Makes His Return To Flushing

A familiar face returns to Flushing tonight when former Met Steven Matz takes the mound as a member of the Blue Jays. Matz is wildly unpredictable, but Toronto's offense is too good for us to pass on them at plus money tonight.

Posted: Jul 23, 2021 1:50 PM ET Updated: Jul 23, 2021 1:50 PM ET Est Time: 4 min
Steven Matz Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It’s the Steven Matz revenge game! The lefty makes his first start against his former team as he and his new squad, the Toronto Blue Jays visit, the New York Mets in the opener of a three-game interleague set. 

Do Matz and the Jays have value as underdogs against rookie Tylor Megill the National League East division-leading Mets? Or is that notorious bullpen in Toronto too shaky to trust? Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Mets on Friday, July 23, and find out.

Blue Jays vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, New York, NY
Date: Friday, July 23, 2021
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Blue Jays vs Mets odds

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Blue Jays vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Steven Matz (8-4, 4.43 ERA): You really don’t know what you’re going to get from Matz from one start to the next. Sometimes he looks unhittable and others he serves up nothing but taters. So, his 4.43 ERA and 1.33 WHIP seem about par for the course.

Tylor Megill (0-0, 2.63 ERA): Megill’s career has gotten off to a great start, pitching to a 2.63 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over his first five outings, and he has allowed just two earned runs over his last three trips to the mound, although his last two games have been against the lowly Pirates. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Blue Jays: Danny Jansen C (Questionable), Julian Merryweather RP (Out), A.J. Cole RP (Out), Tyler Chatwood RP (Out), Corey Dickerson LF (Out).
Mets: Jeff McNeil 2B (Questionable), Sean Reid-Foley RP (Out), Corey Oswalt RP (Out), Francisco Lindor SS (Out), Jordan Yamamoto RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 0-4 in their last four games when facing a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Mets.

Moneyline pick

The Blue Jays enter this game needing to start putting some wins together if they want to stay in the American League postseason race. Take away a three-game sweep against the terrible Texas Rangers and they are just 4-8 in their previous 12 games. 

The Jays hope Matz going against his former mates will motivate him to be the good version of himself. It will help that the Mets aren’t playing their best ball, going just 4-5 in their last nine games, all played against either the Cincinnati Reds or the AAA-caliber Pittsburgh Pirates. 

Matz certainly has been inconsistent at times but has shown he can be very effective and now faces a Mets team that ranks 20th in batting average and 23rd in OPS when it comes to going against left-handers. 

Megill, on the other hand, has been terrific to start his career but the Blue Jays potent lineup will prove to be his toughest test to date. The right-hander uses his four-seamer 60 percent of the time and will need to locate if he wants to be effective against the hard-hitting Jays.

Led by superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerreo Jr., Toronto ranks second in scoring and batting average and is first in OPS and home runs. The Blue Jays lineup is the biggest edge in this matchup and getting them as underdogs here is a good value.

PREDICTION: Blue Jays (+100)

Over/Under pick

When it comes to the total, the early money came in on the Under, moving the number from 9.0 to 8.5, but that now looks low enough to attack the other side.

As noted, the Blue Jays are the owners of one of the best offenses in baseball, and even despite some of their recent struggles are still averaging 5.4 runs per game over their last 10 contests. The Jays are also one of the best fastball hitting teams in baseball and with Megill throwing that pitch so often, Toronto will have plenty of opportunities to put some bats on the ball.

The Mets bats are also in a groove right now, plating 7.8 runs per game over their last five contests (even if it was against the Reds and Pirates), and even if Matz can put on a solid performance, Jays backers will have to hold their breath through however many innings are needed from the stomach-churning bullpen. 

Bet this one to sneak Over the number.

PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-110)

Blue Jays vs Mets betting card

  • Blue Jays ML (+100)
  • Over 8.5 (-110)

Picks made on 7/41/2021 at 1:41 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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