Diamondbacks vs Cubs Picks and Predictions: Zac(h) Supremacy Is On The Line Today... But Not Much Else

Both sides of today's Cubs-Diamondbacks matchup likely aren't sniffing the postseason. But that won't stop us from tackling the most important question in our MLB betting picks for today — "who is the better Zac(h)?"

Posted: Jul 23, 2021 10:24 AM ET Updated: Jul 23, 2021 10:24 AM ET Est Time: 4 min
Zach Davies Chicago Cubs MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There are 15 games on the MLB betting board for Friday, beginning with an afternoon showdown at Wrigley Field between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs.

These teams tangled last weekend in Arizona and will play a three-game set in the Windy City this time around, with the Cubs installed as -136 home favorites for the first contest. 

Here are our best free Diamondbacks vs. Cubs picks and predictions for Friday, July 23, with the first pitch scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. 

Diamondbacks vs Cubs game info

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Friday, July 23, 2021
Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Arizona, Marquee Sports Network

Diamondbacks vs Cubs odds

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Diamondbacks vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Zac Gallen (1-4, 3.86 ERA): The 25-year-old is posting career-worst numbers in ERA and WHIP (1.33) but still has a respectable opponent batting average of .222. Gallen's last outing came against the Cubs last Saturday and he pitched well, allowing three hits and one run through 5 2-3 innings. 

Zach Davies (5-6, 4.35 ERA): The rail-thin right-hander is struggling in his first season with Chicago, pitching to a 1.48 WHIP with an OBA of .253 in 20 starts. Davies is coming off a game against the Diamondbacks on Sunday where he allowed two runs on six hits and four walks across 4 2-3 innings. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Diamondbacks: Asdrubal Cabrera 3B (Out), Carson Kelly C (Out), Ketel Marte CF (Out).
Cubs: Kris Bryant 3B (Probable), Matt Duffy 3B (Questionable), David Bote 3B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Diamondbacks are 8-50 in their last 58 games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs.

Moneyline pick

The Cubs have lost four of their last five games and are now three games below .500. The Diamondbacks are on a four-game winning streak but still have the worst record in the majors at 30-68. 

It's the battle of the Zac(h)s on the mound and while Arizona's Gallen has the better numbers than Chicago's Davies this season, the discrepancy in bullpens is even larger. Cubs relievers have an MLB-best opponent batting average of .198 while ranking fifth in ERA at 3.40... and Arizona's bullpen is dead-last in the majors in both OBA (.285) and ERA (5.39).

While the Cubs have struggled at the dish, especially over the last couple of months, they have been better at Wrigley Field, where they have an OPS of .744. Meanwhile, the D-backs lineup has been brutal away from Chase Field, posting an OPS of just .651. 

Arizona might be 4-0 in its last four games but all of those contests came in Phoenix. This is still a team that is just 11-40 in its last 51 games on the road and will be facing a Cubs squad that, even when they are awful, tend to play better in front of their home fans.

With the Cubs going 28-16 in their last 44 contests at Wrigley Field, back them this afternoon. 

PREDICTION: Cubs (-136)

Over/Under pick

The total opened at a whopping 10.5 for this contest and although Davies has struggled with his control — and Arizona owns the worst bullpen in the majors — this total looks a tad too high.

Keep in mind that the highest total in Gallen's previous 11 starts this season was just 8.5, while the O/U has been installed above 9.0 just twice in Davies' 20 starts.

The Cubs have been awful at the plate over the last two months, averaging just 3.64 runs per game since the start of June. And the Diamondbacks can't hit on the road, batting .216 and plating just 3.71 runs per game.

Although the wind is blowing out towards center field at Wrigley Field today, it's blowing at a modest 7.45 mph so it shouldn't affect the scoring too much — especially when both these lineups have a hard time even making solid contact.

With the Under going 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams in Chicago, take the Under today. 

PREDICTION: Under 10.5 (-117)

Diamondbacks vs Cubs betting card

  • Cubs ML (-136)
  • Under 10.5 (-117)

Picks made on 7/23/2021 at 9:50 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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