Let’s start the weekend with a bang by picking some winners in the MLB prop bet market. With a fully loaded 15 games on the schedule, there is no shortage of props to choose from.
Today, we look at a regional rivalry that could see plenty of bashed baseballs early, and find betting value in the Minnesota Twins, who appear to have called it a season as they sell off parts before next week’s trade deadline.
We break down and pick these games and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Friday, July 23.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Zack Wheeler Over 19.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
Philadelphia Phillies starter Zack Wheeler is not only an effective pitcher but also one of the most reliable inning eaters in the MLB. He’ll look to put on another lengthy performance as the Phillies continue their important series against the Atlanta Braves.
The Phillies and Braves are both trying to track down the Mets for first place in the National League East, each trailing New York by four games. The Braves struck first with a 7-2 win yesterday but the Phillies hope Wheeler can get them back on track Friday night.
Wheeler has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the NL this season, owning a 2.44 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, but the best part about Wheeler has been he tends to give a shaky Phillies bullpen the night off. The right-hander has logged six or more innings 15 times in his 19 starts this year, averaging more than 6.5 innings per outing.
To get the Over on this bet Wheeler will need to pitch 6 2-3 innings, something he has done 11 times this season — including twice against the Braves. With Wheeler sporting even stronger numbers at home (2.16 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 6.82 innings per start) we like him to cash the Over on this prop once again.
Nationals-Orioles Over 5.5 Five-Inning Total (-110)
The latest edition of the Beltway Series should open with a bang as the Washington Nationals begin a three-game set in Baltimore against the Orioles.
The Nats hand the ball to Patrick Corbin in this one, and to say the lefty has struggled this season is an understatement. Corbin has been lit up for a 7.31 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP over his last three starts and on the road, he sports a 6.05 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP.
While the casual baseball fan may think a matchup with the Orioles is a get-right spot for Corbin, Baltimore is a little scrappier than it is given credit for — particularly against southpaws. The O’s rank third in batting average and 11th in OPS when facing lefties this season.
However, the Nationals also get a juicy matchup going against Jorge Lopez. The right-hander has a 7.29 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP over his last seven starts and has only made it through five innings once during that span.
Lopez faces a strong Washington lineup, led by Juan Soto and Trea Turner, that ranks third batting average and eighth in OPS this season. Expect the fireworks to be early and often in this one.
Angels -0.5 Five-Inning RL (-105)
The Minnesota Twins have already shipped off Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays and the sell-off could continue leading up to next Friday’s trade deadline. But for now, they must deal with Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels.
The Halos took the opener of this four-game set 3-2, thanks to a strong performance from starter Andrew Heaney. Scoring continues to be a problem for the Twins coming out of the All-Star break, as Minnesota is scoring just 3.43 runs per game in the seven games since the ASG — and losing one of its most productive hitters won’t help that.
Angels starter Alex Cobb will try to keep Minnesota's offensive futility going. The right-hander has been hot-and-cold this season but so far, July has been a hot month. Cobb is pitching to an 0.92 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .188 batting average over three July starts.
But what really makes this a juicy bet is that the Ohtani-led Angels rank seventh in scoring and OPS, and sixth in home runs — and get to face J.A. Happ.
The veteran lefty is pitching to a 6.15 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP while opponents are hitting .297 off him. Plus over his last three starts, those numbers balloon to 7.36, 1.69, and .354. Oh, and the Halos mash southpaws, ranking second in OPS when facing lefties. Bet the Angels to have the lead through five.
MLB betting card for July 23
- Zack Wheeler Over 19.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
- WAS-BAL Over 5.5 Five-Inning Total (-110)
- Angels -0.5 Five-Inning RL (-105)
Picks made on 7/23/2021 at 11:14 a.m. ET
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