A divisional series opens up this evening between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, with Luis Gil making his long awaited return for New York
Gil was optioned to start the season after a 2025 campaign where his command fell apart. Meanwhile, Steven Matz has been steady in his transition back to starting after a strong bullpen season.
My Yankees vs. Rays predictions and MLB picks break down why Tampa has value on Friday, April 10.
Who will win Yankees vs Rays today: Rays moneyline (+125)
Luis Gil's 2024 breakout seems like a distant memory after 2025.
His chase rate plummeted to the first percentile of baseball, his walk rate ballooned to 13%, and his xERA sat at 4.96 despite a 3.32 actual ERA.
This is his first start after being optioned, and the Tampa Bay Rays have the profile you’d like to fade him.
They are some of the better hitters in baseball when it comes to chasing pitches. The data is small, still, but they’ll come into this matchup with the highest chase contact rate in baseball at 67%.
This will regress, but it’s historically aligned with what they’ve been doing over the past few seasons.
I’m not sold Gil is ready to work out the kinks in a matchup this difficult with his first start back. Opposing Gil is Steven Matz, who just needs to be decent for this bet to hit.
COVERS INTEL: Gil’s Bottom 1% chase rate last season was the lowest among starting pitchers with at least 50 innings under their belt.
Yankees vs Rays Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+102)
I remain high on New York Yankees Overs with a projected total of 8.9 tonight.
It’s safe to say that the Rays will have baserunners tonight, and if they get timely hitting, they’ll be able to do their part on this Over.
Let’s talk about the other side. While I feel good enough about backing Matz as an underdog, he’s still going to give up some runs.
There are a few hitters in this lineup, like Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, and Aaron Judge, who have some decent results against him with a decent sample.
That makes sense too. The Yankees were one of the best teams in baseball against southpaws last season, and Matz has routinely had a hard-hit issue, ranking in the Bottom 30th percentile of the past two seasons.
- ML/RL bets: 4-3, +0.96 units
- Over/Under bets: 5-3, +1.89 units
Yankees vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -130 | Rays +110
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Rays +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Rays trend
The Rays have hit the Over in 19 of their last 35 games (+5.85 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays.
How to watch Yankees vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date | Friday, April 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, RAYS |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Luis Gil (2025: 4-1, 3.32 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Steven Matz (2-0, 4.09 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rays latest injuries
Yankees vs Rays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
