The Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox renew their AL Central rivalry on Saturday afternoon at Progressive Field, with Cleveland handing Parker Messick the ball for Game 1, and Chicago expected to counter with rookie left-hander Hagen Smith.
My Guardians vs. White Sox props take a shot on Grichuk's power against a lefty, with first pitch set for 1 p.m. ET on TBS.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Oct. 3.
Best White Sox vs Guardians props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Grichuk Over 0.5 home runs |
17% |
 Messick Over 6.5 strikeouts |
50% |
| Meidroth Over 1.5 total bases |
39% |
Prop pick #1: Randal Grichuk Over 0.5 home runs
I'm buying Randal Grichuk to homer at 17% and would go to 19%.
Chicago gets one of baseball's better lefty mashers into the lineup against a left-handed starter, without the short price attached to its bigger names.
Grichuk demolished southpaws this season, batting .327 with a .371 OBP and .655 SLG across 178 plate appearances. Eleven of his 12 home runs came against left-handed pitching.
Parker Messick leans on his four-seam fastball and changeup, throwing them roughly 42% and 24% of the time, respectively. Grichuk handles both. He slugged .579 against four-seamers with a 50.7% hard-hit rate, and his .605 SLG and 65.5% hard-hit rate against changeups make the secondary pitch the one to watch.
Prop pick #2: Parker Messick Over 6.5 strikeouts
My White Sox vs. Guardians predictions are interested up to 55% on this prop.
Chicago has given us a big enough sample against Parker Messick to make seven strikeouts a reasonable target. The rookie faced the White Sox four times in the regular season and piled up 29 strikeouts across 25 2/3 innings.
He reached at least seven in three of those four starts, posting totals of 10, three, eight, and eight.
Messick's full season backs up the matchup numbers. He finished with 193 strikeouts in 186 1/3 innings, along with a 2.56 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Cleveland has no reason to handle him carefully Saturday, either. His regular-season finale was trimmed to three innings once the Guardians clinched the division, leaving him rested for his postseason debut.
Prop pick #3: Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 total bases
I'd buy Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 total bases at 38% and would go up to 42%.
Chicago's hottest bat is hitting leadoff against a left-hander. Meidroth has mashed left-handed pitching all season, batting .350 with a .431 OBP and a .592 SLG in 183 plate appearances against southpaws. He has 17 doubles and seven home runs in the split, and this is no singles-only profile.
The recent form is even better. Over his last 10 games, Meidroth is batting .412 with 14 hits, three home runs, and 25 total bases. He has cleared this number in seven straight games, including multi-hit efforts in both Wild Card games against the Houston Astros. He went 2-for-3 with a three-run homer in the clincher.
Hitting leadoff against Parker Messick gives Meidroth the best shot on either side at a fifth plate appearance, and two singles, one double, or one swing all cash.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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