Welcome to the ALDS, let's kick it off with our Yankees vs. Rays prop picks and drop some winners.
If you know me, you're already aware I'm the captain of the Tampa Bay Rays bandwagon - it's an easy vehicle to drive when Drew Rasmussen has dominated the New York Yankees throughout his career. He gets the ball tonight, and we're riding with him to take Game 1 as 56% favorites at Polymarket.
Tap into all of my MLB picks for Saturday, Oct. 3, and let's stay hot throughout the playoffs.
Best Yankees vs Rays props
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| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Drew Rasmussen Over 6.5 strikeouts |
46% |
 Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 strikeouts |
60% |
| Yandy Diaz 2+ total bases |
42% |
Prop pick #1: Drew Rasmussen Over 6.5 Strikeouts
There's no other way to put this: Drew Rasmussen was one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, and he's dominated the New York Yankees throughout his career. He owns a 1.81 ERA and 70 punchouts in 11 appearances, including a 6 2/3 inning, 11-strikeout performance the last time he faced the pinstripes. Overall, this Yankees lineup owns just a .177 xBA, .230 xwOBA, and is striking out at a 33% clip across 139 plate appearances against the right-hander.
Rasmussen comes into tonight with the lowest walk rate (4.8%), xBA (.227), and wOBA (.243) of his career - New York will have to earn it come Saturday night, and I'm not convinced they're up for the task.
Prop pick #2: Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Gerrit Cole has gone under this number in four of his last six starts, and the Tampa Bay Rays are one tough customer when it comes to getting punched out. Striking out the least in Major League Baseball this season, the Rays also have the fifth-best team OBP. Simply put, they get on base.
Only two players in the starting lineup for the Rays have a K rate of over 23%; Tampa grinds down starting pitchers, puts the ball in play, and looks to manufacture runs at all times. It's in their DNA, and it's why they've been so successful this year.
I'm playing this with confidence.
Prop pick #3: Yandy Diaz 2+ total bases
Looking for a Rays hitter who absolutely mashes Cole? Look no further. Over 50 at-bats, Yandy Diaz is 17-for-50 (.340) with two homers and three doubles - now that's a sample size we can get behind.
When you throw in the fact he loves himself some home cooking, the pieces start to align on this play; Diaz owns a .920 OPS and .531 SLG at Tropicana Field, and should put on a show for the home fans in Game 1. His .281 xBA this season is just a nice little cherry on top.
Let's dial him up.
- Prop picks: 4-5, +3.22 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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