Intro. Bold Guardians vs White Sox home run predictions keyword and link to MLB picks. Please add BetslipIDs into all widgets below.
Best Guardians vs White Sox home run picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jose Ramirez |
13% |
 Colson Montgomery |
15% |
| Long shot: Chase Meidroth |
8% |
| 💲HR combo | 1.54% |
Guardians home run pick: Jose Ramirez
It took a couple of games to shake off the rust, but the former MVP has arrived in the postseason. Jose Ramirez had his first two hits of the series in Wednesday’s win, and they both went for extra bases.
Ramirez has homered in three of his last five postseason series, and he had a 138 OPS+ at Chicago’s Rate Field this season.
Chicago White Sox opener Hagen Smith walked five Cleveland Guardians batters in his first appearance of the series, and his postseason FIP is more than two full runs higher than his ERA, meaning he is tracking toward some regression to the mean.
He’ll try to throw strikes against the patient Cleveland lineup, which means Ramirez should see some pitches to hit.
White Sox home run pick: Colson Montgomery
Munetaka Murakami has the bigger name, but Colson Montgomery has been the more dangerous postseason hitter. He had two hits in Game 1 against Game 4 starter Parker Messick, and he’s posted an .835 OPS in the playoffs, 250 points higher than Murakami’s.
Montgomery has struggled with elite fastball velocity, but with 94th-percentile bat speed, he should be able to catch up with Messick’s 94 mph four-seamer. He homered off a 94-mph-four-seamer from Houston’s Miguel Ullola in the Wild Card Series, one of three Chicago home runs this postseason.
Montgomery struggled at the plate much of the regular season, but he hit 17% better than league average against lefties and went deep 6% more often than against righties.
Long-shot home run pick: Chase Meidroth
One of the three White Sox batters to go yard in the postseason this year, Chase Meidroth leads Chicago in postseason OPS (.979) by more than 150 points and in average (.368) by 68. He’s also hit .267 in his career against Messick.
Meidroth is 3-for-8 in the last two games of this series with a double. He has a 310 OPS+ over the last week, 184 over the last two, and 148 over the last month with four long balls. He’s Chicago's hottest hitter, and he homered twice as frequently against left-handers as he did against righties this season.
Messick gave up three homers in two starts at Rate Field this season.
Guardians vs White Sox home run combo
Ramirez seems poised to go on a tear after finding his stroke last night, and the two Chicago middle infielders are already mid-tear. For the slim probability this combination is given, it seems like a reasonable flier to take.
- Best bets: 36-42, +0.96 units
- Over/Under: 49-24, +15.27 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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