Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Home Run Pick for Today's MLB Game

Mike DiStefano - Contributor at Covers.com
Mike DiStefano • Betting Analyst 14+ years betting experience
Updated: Apr 12, 2026 , 10:45 AM ET • 4 min read

DiStefano's prediction: Vladdy stays hot vs. Twins pitching.

MLB

Match starts: 1 hrs
MIN
40 %
TOR
60 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5  Total Bases (+115) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Read Analysis
Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) reacts after scoring a run.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) reacts after scoring a run.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is heating up, and I expect him to continue to provide offense this afternoon in a plus-pitching matchup.

Read on to see why he’ll be the feature player in my Blue Jays vs. Twins predictions and free MLB picks for Sunday, April 12. 

Twins vs Blue Jays predictions

Twins vs Blue Jays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 bases (+115)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is heating up after a slow start to the season. 

The Toronto Blue Jays slugger has seven hits in his last three games, cruising past today’s posted total of 1.5 bases in each of those outings, averaging 2.33 bases per contest

He also has had a lot of success against Minnesota Twins starter Taj Bradley

Vladdy is 7-for-14 against Bradley throughout his career with a 1.286 OPS. 

Covers COVERS INTEL: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a .373 batting average and a career .923 OPS against this Twins pitching staff. 

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Twins vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Jesus Sanchez is also swinging a hot bat. The Jays outfielder has doubled in three straight games, and I’m expecting at least another hit tonight against Bradley, who he’s 3-for-6 against in his career. 

Lastly, I’ll take Over 7.5 runs scored in this game. The total has gone over the number in nine of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. I am also expecting some regression from Bradley tonight, who’s underlying numbers aren’t as strong as his 1.08 ERA suggests this early in the season.

Twins vs Blue Jays SGP

  • Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
  • Sanchez Over 0.5 hits
  • Over 7.5
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Twins vs Blue Jays home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+440)

This is a half-unit bet. 

Guerrero Jr is starting to see his power return this season. He’s recorded 2+ basis in at four straight games, and Bradly gives up a lot of hard contact, ranking 6th percentile in average exit velocity.

Additionally, this is a good matchup for Vladdy, going up against the Twins starter, who throws the four-seamer 41% of the time. Vladdy hit .314 against the pitch last season with 13 homers and a .560 slugging rate. 

2026 Transparency record
  • Best bets: 4-9, -2.25 units
  • SGPs: 2-11, -3.50 units
  • HR picks: 2-11, -1.30 units

Twins vs Blue Jays odds

  • Moneyline: Minnesota +115 | Toronto -135
  • Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-190) | Toronto -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Twins vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.25 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Twins vs Blue Jays and game info

Location Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date Sunday, April 12, 2026
First pitch 1:37 p.m. ET
TV Sportsnet
Twins starting pitcher Taj Bradley
(2-0, 1.08 ERA)
Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer
(1-1, 3.38 ERA)

Twins vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Twins vs Blue Jays weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Mike DiStefano - Covers
Betting Analyst

Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN's flagship radio/tv show "OverDrive" as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.

A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.

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