Raise the banner! The Toronto Blue Jays scored more than five runs in a game for the first time since April 6.
Justin Turner hit two home runs while Danny Jansen hit another, and even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got in on the mix with two hits in the win over the Kansas City Royals
Unfortunately for Toronto fans, my Royals vs. Blue Jays predictions show that this offensive outburst may be hard to duplicate.
I break it down in my MLB picks for Tuesday, April 30.
Royals vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Under 3.5 first-five innings (+105 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Yes, the Toronto Blue Jays finally scored some runs, taking the opener against the Kansas City Royals 6-5. However, the offensive outburst should be short-lived as Royals ace Cole Ragans will toe the rubber against red-hot Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios.
It feels like the Royals got away with theft in getting Ragans in a deal for closer Aroldis Chapman last June because the left-hander looks like the real deal.
Five of Ragans’ six starts have been impressive, including allowing one run on three hits over five innings in terrible rainy conditions when these teams met just last Thursday. Ragans owns a 3.65 expected ERA and is striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings this season.
Despite the scoring surge, this Blue Jays lineup is struggling. Toronto ranks 23rd in batting average, 20th in OPS, and 16th in wRC+. Luckily, the Jays may not need to score many runs in this one if they want to win thanks to how well Berrios has performed.
Berrios has allowed five earned runs over six starts this season. He has a WHIP of 1.04 and started the season with five consecutive quality starts. He probably would be six-for-six in that regard if not for his last start (that same game against the Royals last Thursday), which was called after five innings.
The two runs Berrios allowed in that game came off a two-run homer from Salvador Perez in the first inning. He should have even more success this time, being in controlled conditions at home and going against a Royals team that ranks 20th in batting average, 19th in OPS, and 21st in wRC+.
These teams played to the Under in all four games of last week’s series, and the 2-1 five-inning game landed below the first-half total. I expect the starters to be even better this time, and with both teams employing some shaky bullpens, I prefer the Under in the first five innings instead of the full-game variety.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+162 at PROLINE+)
It shouldn’t be shocking that the Blue Jays put up six runs mostly on the back of Justin Turner. He’s been the Jays most productive hitter this season and he proved it last night. But maybe the most promising part about last night’s win was the performance of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero went 2-for-4 and a walk in the win, which included a hard-hit double that drove in a run. It was his second consecutive multi-hit game and he’s now 5-for-his-last-12, with two doubles and a 1.045 OPS.
The Blue Jays slugger has also been much more effective against left-handed pitchers this season, hitting .278 with a .736 OPS.
Guerrero will also have more opportunities to drive in runs with the bottom of the Blue Jays batting order being more effective of late. Our Covers Prop Projections have Vladdy at 0.6 RBIs for tonight’s game and this price makes the Over a four-star play.
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Royals vs Blue Jays odds
Royals vs Blue Jays live odds
Royals vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 -190 | Toronto -1.5 +160
- Moneyline: Kansas City +125 | Toronto -150
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Royals vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this American League matchup as -150 home favorites but the Royals have seen some action with the line at Toronto -140.
- The value looks like it's with the Royals as underdogs as Ragans can outduel Berrios.
- The total hit the board at 7.5 and hasn't moved.
- Yesterday was the first time in five games these teams played Over the total. With these starters on the mound, my money is on the Under returning tonight.
Royals vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games for +11.50 Units and a 9% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Blue Jays
Royals vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSKC, SN1 |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Cole Ragans (0-2, 4.32 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (4-0, 0.85 ERA) |
Royals vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Royals vs Blue Jays weather
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