A pair of struggling offenses hit Petco Park on Monday, June 8, with the San Diego Padres hosting the Cincinnati Reds in their series opener.
My top Reds vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks are calling for Cincy to eke out a low-scoring win tonight.
Who will win Reds vs Padres today: Reds moneyline (+118)
It hasn’t always been pretty, but Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott has allowed three runs of fewer in each of his past seven starts for a surface 2.25 ERA that hides a 5.07 xFIP.
I’m confident Abbott can continue his strong stretch despite the poor underlying metrics because the San Diego Padres rank last in baseball in wOBA against lefties, and they also rank last in the overall metric during their active 4-13 skid while averaging just 2.6 runs per game.
Plus, there’s nothing intimidating about Friars righty Walker Buehler’s well-above average 4.63 xERA.
I’d play the Reds moneyline to +100.
COVERS INTEL: The San Diego Padres have the lowest squared up contract rate and runs above average based on wOBA in the majors, which positions the Cincinnati Reds to win and for this total to come in Under the number.
Reds vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+100)
In addition to the poor offense from the Padres, the Reds are without star Elly De La Cruz (hamstring) and have only scored 3.2 runs per game while ranking fifth-last in xwOBA during the six-game stretch.
Both teams have also trended toward their team totals Unders, with Cincy hitting in eight of the past 10 (+5.85 Units / 48% ROI) and San Diego in 31 of the past 45 (+15.20 Units / 29% ROI).
I’d obviously also play the Under 8.5, and the Under 7.5 to -105.
- ML/RL bets: 23-12, +12.68 units
- Over/Under bets: 13-9, +3.37 units
Reds vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Reds +115 | Padres -135
- Run line: Reds +1.5 (-185) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-125) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Reds vs Padres trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.35 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Padres.
How to watch Reds vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Monday, June 8, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Reds.TV, Padres.TV |
| Reds starting pitcher | Andrew Abbott (4-3, 4.06 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Walker Buehler (3-3, 4.53 ERA) |
Reds vs Padres latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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