MLB Picks

It's doubleheader day in Cincinnati, and the Reds have a sizable edge on the mound with Chase Burns getting the ball in Game 1 and working on a possible bigger leash. He has quickly emerged as one of the NL Cy Young betting favorites at 20/1, and the Reds have won seven straight Burns starts with the run line cashing in every one. On the other side, Slade Cecconi has allowed 15 runs over his last three starts and could be in for another rough outing if Cleveland asks him to wear some innings. If the Reds jump out early, there's also a good chance the Guardians turn to the B bullpen to preserve their top relievers for Game 2, where Cincinnati doesn't have a listed starter. The winds are blowing out at Great American Ball Park, which only adds to the run-scoring upside while giving even more support to the strikeout-heavy Burns. I'm playing this down to +115/+120.

Dean Kremer is always a good pitcher fade and even better today on the road with 18-mph winds blowing out to center field. Lefties always give the Baltimore starter trouble, with 70% of his home runs allowed this year and 66% since 2024. That puts me on a left-handed bat of Detroit, and I'm settling on the rookie, Kevin McGonigle, at +488. The AL rookie of the year betting favorite (-240) has a fair price of around +420, with his last HR cashing at +375 vs. another righty in Ryan Johnson. Looking under the hood, his IdealAtkAng% tops the team over the last week, and he is getting a ton of balls in play with just a 4% walk rate and hitting .306 over his last nine games, which comes with a hit in all but one of those games. Is he crushing the ball right now? Not exactly, but this matchup and wind are enough to aid any hitter, especially one who owns a .859 OPS vs. right-handers and might not have to face any left-handed options out of the Baltimore bullpen today.

The Mets have consistently hit Chris Sale well, producing a .920 OPS against him. New York’s bats are also heating up, ranking fifth in OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Christian Scott faces a daunting challenge against a Braves lineup that's been one of baseball’s best against right-handed pitching this month. Add in Atlanta’s struggling bullpen, and this game has a strong chance to clear the total.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.