The Boston Red Sox will look to complete a four-game road sweep of the Baltimore Orioles when the teams wrap up their series at Camden Yards at 1:35 p.m. ET this afternoon.
My Red Sox vs. Orioles prediction is backing the brooms just like the prediction markets, who are giving the Red Sox a 55% probability.
With Boston completely shutting down Baltimore’s offense in back-to-back games, my MLB picks expect more of the same at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Who will win Red Sox vs Orioles today: Red Sox moneyline (55%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Baltimore Orioles have gone 18 straight innings without scoring, and while they should finally break that streak today, Payton Tolle has also dominated this matchup, allowing no runs over seven innings in an 8-1 win on June 3.
The Boston Red Sox have also won nine of Tolle’s last 10 starts, averaging 6.4 runs, while Kyle Bradish enters 0-3 with a 5.10 ERA over his last six starts.
With Boston also owning the second-most road wins in the AL, I’d back the Red Sox at 60% probability or better.
COVERS INTEL: Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso’s 33rd home run of the year is his lone hit in this series through three games. He has also just one hit in five career at-bats against Tolle, striking out twice.
Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (50%)
Baltimore’s offense has hit the skids at home lately, scoring 19 total runs over the last nine games, all to AL East opponents (Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox). The Orioles have scored one or fewer runs five times.
It’s been mostly a power shortage overall as well, as the O’s have cashed the Under in seven of their last 10 games.
Boston owns a Top 4 ERA in baseball, and Payton Tolle is unbeaten in 10 straight starts, going 4-0 with a 3.23 ERA, placing him perfectly in line to keep Baltimore’s bats in check.
The Under has hit in five of the last seven head-to-heads between these teams, and I’d take the total as low as 6.5 runs on Sunday.
Red Sox vs Orioles home run prediction: Mickey Gasper (12%)
Boston designated hitter Mickey Gasper has shown some pop lately. He homered in the series opener and has three long balls in his last seven games.
It’ll be his first time facing Bradish, but Gasper has fared well vs righties this season: he’s batting .304 with all eight of his home runs coming from that side of the plate.
- ML/RL bets: 11-12, -1.27 units
- Over/Under bets: 15-7, +8.3 units
Red Sox vs Orioles weather
Red Sox vs Orioles odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox 55% | Orioles 45%
- Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (43%) | Orioles +1.5 (57%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (50%) | Under 7.5 (50%)
Red Sox vs Orioles trend
The Red Sox have won seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Orioles.
How to watch Red Sox vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, MASN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Payton Tolle (8-6, 3.23 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Kyle Bradish (7-12, 4.01 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Orioles latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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