Our Brewers vs. Dodgers expert picks won't be breaking out the brooms ahead of Game 4 of the NLCS tonight.
Instead, our analysts expect the Los Angeles Dodgers to bring their best behind Tyler Glasnow and force a fifth game against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Get all of our MLB picks for Thursday, Oct. 15, below, ahead of this 8 p.m. start at Dodger Stadium on FS1.
Brewers vs Dodgers expert picks for Game 4
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: Tyler Glasnow o14.5 outs |
57% |
 Jon Metler: LAD ML |
58% |
 Neil Parker: LAD -1.5 |
40% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Tyler Glasnow Over 14.5 outs
Price: 57¢ at Polymarket
It's a little juicy, but with the Los Angeles Dodgers having little to no faith in their bullpen in a must-win game, Tyler Glasnow is getting 15 outs, and this could shorten to 63%.
Blake Snell had a leash yesterday despite allowing a leadoff homer and four runs. Dave Roberts let him go 101 pitches, and Glasnow should get the same treatment despite throwing just 78 pitches in his last postseason outing.
The L.A. bullpen has little trust after allowing 13 hits and six runs over 8-plus innings in the last two games. L.A. doesn't extend this series if Glasnow fails to get 15 outs.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline
Price: 58¢ at Polymarket
At 58%, I'll take the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLCS, as I make them 62% favorites against Dustin May and the Milwaukee Brewers.
Trust me, I'm not thrilled about it either. The hate watch will have to wait another day because, when it comes to sports trading, the math is the math.
Glasnow's swing-and-miss arsenal is a tough matchup for the bottom of Milwaukee's lineup, and I can't justify backing May and the Brewers at these probabilities.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Dodgers -1.5
Price: 40¢ at Polymarket
The Dodgers have massive statistical correction coming at the dish with their third-ranked .321 postseason xwOBA well above their ninth-ranked .264 wOBA. Their .216 BABIP is also eyeing positive regression alongside a 41.7% hard-hit rate and 35.2% squared-up contact rate.
Glasnow has been reliable in the playoffs since joining the Boys in Blue, with a 3.70 xERA and 3.67 xFIP across 26 innings.
He's also held Brewers hitters to a minuscule .176 xwOBA and .058 xISO while racking up an eye-popping 40.4% strikeout rate.
It all adds up to a Game 5 in Dodger Stadium on Friday, and I’d recommend Los Angeles on the run line to 43%.
How to watch Brewers vs Dodgers Game 4
| Location | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, Calif. |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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