The defending World Series champions will look to avoid elimination tonight in Game 4 of the NLCS, and I've pinpointed my best Brewers vs. Dodgers home run predictions for this contest at 8 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium.
I'll include Jackson Chourio, Teoscar Hernandez, and Brice Turang. Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, Oct. 15.
Best Brewers vs Dodgers home run picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jackson Chourio |
13% |
 Teoscar Hernandez |
14% |
| Long shot: Brice Turang |
8% |
| 💲HR combo | 100x |
Brewers home run pick: Jackson Chourio
Play up to 18%.
Jackson Chourio homered off the first pitch he saw from Blake Snell in Game 3, and although Tyler Glasnow presents another difficult matchup tonight, Chourio has shown plenty of power against right-handed pitching.
Of his 26 regular-season home runs, 16 came against right-handers. Despite batting just .200 in the playoffs, Chourio’s underlying numbers have been much louder, including a 54.5% hard-hit rate and 9.1% barrel rate.
Glasnow has made only one postseason appearance, so the sample is tiny, but he allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate in that outing. Chourio is making enough authoritative contact to punish a mistake if Glasnow leaves one in the zone.
Dodgers home run pick: Teoscar Hernandez
Play up to 18%.
Teoscar Hernandez hasn't gotten the results to match his quality of contact this postseason, but he's consistently squaring up the baseball. The slugger owns a 50% hard-hit rate and 18.8% barrel rate in October, while also going deep once.
Shane Drohan is expected to open for Milwaukee tonight, and that's good news for Hernandez. He crushed left-handed pitching during the regular season, batting .303 with seven home runs and a .515 SLG.
With Milwaukee expected to deploy a bullpen game, Hernandez could also see additional left-handers after Drohan, including Kyle Harrison and Aaron Ashby.
Given Hernandez's success against southpaws and the possibility of multiple favorable platoon matchups, he has an appealing path to leaving the yard tonight.
Long-shot home run pick: Brice Turang
Play up to 12%.
Brice Turang is an intriguing long-shot option at this price, especially with Glasnow on the mound for Los Angeles. Turang showed legitimate pop against right-handed pitching during the regular season, with 18 of his home runs coming against righties.
He doesn’t need to be Milwaukee’s biggest power bat to offer value here, either. Turang’s spot near the top of the order should give him multiple chances to do damage, and his ability to get into the ball against right-handers gives him a realistic path to leaving the yard.
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Brewers vs Dodgers home run combo
This combo attacks both sides of the Game 4 pitching setup without relying on one specific matchup. Chourio and Turang give Milwaukee two left-handed power threats against Glasnow, while Hernandez gets the benefit of Milwaukee’s expected bullpen game and could see multiple favorable matchups against southpaws.
Chourio brings the strongest recent power form, Turang offers the true long-shot value, and Hernandez provides the best platoon edge on the Dodgers side. It’s a balanced three-leg ticket.
- HR picks: 22-114, -11.03 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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