Yandy Diaz and the Tampa Bay Rays face Matthew Liberatore and the St. Louis Cardinals this afternoon at Busch Stadium.
Starter Drew Rasmussen will bring the gas for Tampa, and my Rays vs. Cardinals predictions expect the visitors to win on MLB Opening Day.
Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, March 26.
Rays vs Cardinals predictions
Rays vs Cardinals best bet: Rays moneyline (-122)
Tampa Bay Rays starter Drew Rasmussen has a clear edge over St. Louis Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore.
Rasmussen is coming off a strong season in which he consistently limited damage, posting a sub-3.00 ERA while attacking the zone and keeping hitters off balance, inducing a ground-ball rate that ranked in the 82nd percentile.
Liberatore struggled to find consistency, allowing too many baserunners while getting squared up. He didn't issue a lot of free passes (6.2% walk rate), but his fastball got hit hard when he was in and around the zone.
FanGraphs projects the Cardinals to score the 27th most runs because they can’t consistently punish big arms. I’ll back the more reliable starter and bullpen.
COVERS INTEL: The Tampa Bay Rays ran wild in 2025, with a franchise record and MLB best 194 stolen bases.
Rays vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Yandy Diaz posted a .365 OBP and scored 31 runs against left-handed pitching in 2025, finishing with 79 runs overall.
Batting leadoff, he will have opportunities to get on base against Liberatore and cross the dish, especially with Junior Caminero likely hitting cleanup.
Caminero drove in 110 runs last season and brings power to this matchup, slugging .500 against lefties.
For the last leg, Rasmussen averaged just 7.62 strikeouts per nine innings with a 49% ground-ball rate in 2025 and relies more on contact than on swing-and-miss.
He also never tossed more than six innings in a single start last season, with the Rays preserving his arm. With a short leash, he may have fewer opportunities to rack up the Ks.
Rays vs Cardinals SGP
- Yandy Diaz to score a run
- Junior Caminero Over 0.5 RBI
- Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 strikeouts
Rays vs Cardinals home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+450)
Diaz has 61 home runs across the last three seasons, 25 of which have come off lefties in considerably fewer plate appearances.
He’s coming off a 2025 campaign where he slugged .482 with a wRC+ of 135, and Liberatore allowed 16 home runs to right-handed bats with eight of those taters served at Busch.
The weather forecast expects an unseasonably hot day with the wind blowing out to left, which can boost home run potential.
Rays vs Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay -124 | St. Louis +106
- Run line: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+134) | St. Louis +1.5 (-162)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-122) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Rays vs Cardinals trend
The St. Louis Cardinals have only hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 106 games (-18.80 Units / -15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Rays vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Thursday, March 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rays TV, Cardinals TV |
| Rays starting pitcher | Drew Rasmussen (2025: 10-5, 2.76 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Matthew Liberatore (2025: 8-12, 4.21 ERA) |
Rays vs Cardinals latest injuries
Rays vs Cardinals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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