The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants settle their three-game series with a matinee this afternoon.
Matt Waldron takes the bump for the visitors while Adrian Houser answers for the home team.
See why I expect the Tony Vitello era to go from bad to worse with my Padres vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, May 9.
Who will win Padres vs Giants today: Padres (-110)
A case can be made that the San Diego Padres have the better pitching, hitting, and fielding than the San Francisco Giants.
Matt Waldron’s .373 BABIP and 56.5% left-on-base rate will regress, making his 9.88 ERA a temporary blip. The knuckleballer avoids walks (7.2%) and forces groundballs (48.1%) while limiting hard contact (75th percentile hard-hit rate).
Adrian Houser, meanwhile, is a mess. He strikes out only 11.2% of batters and allows loud contact (14th percentile hard-hit rate), leading to a 5.95 xERA.
San Diego’s elite bullpen is well-rested, and its lineup is superior to San Francisco’s league-worst group.
COVERS INTEL: Houser throws his sinker 41.5% of the time. The offering has been entirely ineffective, generating a minuscule 6.7% whiff rate while getting battered around (.334 xBA and .535 xSLG).
Padres vs Giants Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
Neither starting pitcher has been reliable enough to expect anything other than a high-scoring game.
Waldron has allowed 15 earned runs in a little over 13 innings, and Houser has been responsible for 4+ runs in four of his last five outings.
This has naturally led to high-scoring games for their respective ballclubs; San Diego is 2-1 O/U in Waldron’s three starts, and San Francisco is 4-1-1 with Houser on the hill.
The Giants are a streaky team, so it was encouraging that they scored five runs yesterday. The Padres have a capable lineup and have plated 4+ runs in seven of 11.
- ML/RL bets: 9-9, -1.99 units
- Over/Under bets: 13-6, +6.7 units
Padres vs Giants odds
- Moneyline: Padres -112 | Giants -104
- Run line: Padres -1.5 (+146) | Giants +1.5 (-176)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-112) | Under 8.5 (-108)
Padres vs Giants trend
The Giants are 1-7 in their last eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants.
How to watch Padres vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, May 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, NBC Sports Bay Area |
| Padres starting pitcher | Matt Waldron (0-1, 9.88 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Adrian Houser (0-3, 7.12 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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