Orioles vs White Sox Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The White Sox are inferior to the Orioles in just about every meaningful way, and our MLB picks aren't giving the home side much credit in tonight's matchup.

Tony Sartori - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
May 24, 2024 • 09:27 ET • 4 min read
Corbin Burnes MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Orioles vs White Sox Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

This AL series continues tonight with the Chicago White Sox hosting the Baltimore Orioles. MLB odds have Baltimore as a heavy -270 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.

My Orioles vs. White Sox prediction is bullish on Baltimore’s chances as a heavy favorite, primarily due to the pitching matchup.

Read on for my MLB picks for Friday, May 24.

Orioles vs White Sox prediction

My best bet
Orioles -1.5 (-140 at FanDuel)

My analysis

Baltimore Orioles right-hander Corbin Burnes is a great candidate to back most nights, and Friday will not likely be any different. Through 10 starts this season, Burnes is 4-2 with a commanding 2.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

He has yet to allow more than three runs in a game, and Baltimore has won six of those 10 games. Five of those six wins have come by at least a two-run margin.

Based on Burnes’ underlying metrics, regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 86th percentile in xERA and 78th percentile in xBA. Meanwhile, right-hander Chris Flexen takes the mound for the Chicago White Sox, and he is simply no match for the Orioles’ ace.

This season, Burnes outranks Flexen in wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate. Not only does Baltimore possess the stronger starting pitcher, but it also boasts the superior bullpen and lineup.

Starting with the relief pitching, the Orioles pace the White Sox in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Moving onto the hitting, Baltimore’s lineup surpasses Chicago’s in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and home runs.

The only advantage the White Sox own is home-field, but they have a losing record at Guaranteed Rate Field this season, while the Orioles are above .500 on the road.

Orioles vs White Sox same-game parlay (SGP)

Orioles -1.5

Over 8.5

While I think the Burnes and the O’s will take care of business as heavy favorites, there should be plenty of opportunity for a high-scoring affair. First, Baltimore boasts one of the best lineups in the league and could put up nine runs by itself against Flexen and one of the league’s worst bullpens.

However, it is possible that Chicago hangs up a couple runs on Burnes, which would be more than enough to carry this game over the total. Through 50 career plate appearances against Baltimore’s right-hander, this current White Sox lineup boasts a .319 BA, .596 SLG and .402 wOBA.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Orioles vs White Sox odds

Orioles vs White Sox live odds

Orioles vs White Sox opening odds

  • Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (-140) | Chicago +1.5 (+116)
  • Moneyline: Baltimore -270 | Chicago +220
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-102) | Under 8.5 (-120)

Orioles vs White Sox spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Baltimore opened as a -270 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing. I believe the market will keep moving this line in the Orioles’ direction, given all the aforementioned variables.

  • The total opened at 8.5 and also remains at that price. It will be interesting to see how the market handles this total.

  • On the one hand, you have Burnes going against a below-average Chicago lineup. On the other hand, you have Flexen and one of the worst bullpens in baseball going against a powerhouse Baltimore lineup.

  • The Over is naturally a more popular play, so I think it’s more likely we see Over 9 than we do Under 7.5, although the total should remain between 8 and 8.5.

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Orioles vs White Sox trend

The Orioles have hit the run line in 24 of their last 48 games (+3.70 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. White Sox

Orioles vs White Sox game info

Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Friday, 5-24-2024
First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
TV: Apple TV+
Orioles starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
(4-2, 2.56 ERA)
White Sox starting pitcher: Chris Flexen
(2-4, 5.48 ERA)

Orioles vs White Sox latest injuries

Orioles vs White Sox weather

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