MLB Picks

The slugger just went deep in three straight games over the weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals. While Alvarez only has one at-bat against Slade Cecconi, the right-hander has struggled this season with the long ball, giving up three of them in only four starts. Alvarez is obviously red-hot, and five of his bombs have come off righties.

I thought +540 was a great HR price on Jordan Walker last Friday. This is an insane number for a hitter with elite metrics and one of the fastest swings in all of baseball. The cold has crept in on a small Monday slate, and getting one of this year’s best HR bats at anything better than +400 in a controlled environment is a +EV gift to start the week. Walker has also more than doubled his barrel rate this year, jumping from 11.2% to 24%. The matchup favors him against Max Meyer and his shaky command. Per Covers projections powered by THE BAT, “Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his fly balls to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.”

You can’t go wrong with Junior Caminero at +400 or better, and today’s +410 price is making the card. It’s an indoor environment that ranks as a Top-10 park for home runs to left field, and Caminero sits in the top five percent in baseball for pull fly balls. It’s a great setting for a hitter with the second-fastest swing in MLB. Chase Burns can miss bats, but he can also struggle with command and give up the long ball with a decent fly-ball rate. The Cincinnati Reds' bullpen is also showing signs that its early success could regress. The fair price here is around +370.

The #4 field in MLB for suppressing batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 7th-hottest weather on the slate at 54°.. Luis Garcia Jr. has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 7.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week's worth of games.. Luis Garcia Jr.'s launch angle in recent games (-3.5° in the last 7 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 9.5° seasonal mark.

Aside from Baltimore’s struggles, KC has been even worse. They’re 30th in runs scored, and they’ve cashed the Under in two of their last three contests. Baltimore has also hit the Under in two of their last four games. They’re batting just .201 on the road in 2026, and in this matchup, three of the last four meetings have cashed the Under in runs.

Jose Quintana has been brutal through two starts, recording twice as many walks (8) as strikeouts (3). The veteran ranks in the first percentile in xERA (8.88) and K rate (8.1%) and the second percentile in barrel rate (19.2%). The Dodgers have been the best team in the league against left-handed pitching (140 wRC+) and should positively feast at Coors Field. Justin Wrobleski has been supremely effective, allowing a single earned run on four hits in his last 13 IP. He should limit a Rockies lineup that struggles against LHP (68 wRC+ and 0.2 BB/K). 

As it relates to his home run talent, Lawrence Butler ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast calls for the 2nd-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Given Emerson Hancock's large platoon split, Lawrence Butler will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.. Lawrence Butler has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.