The Baltimore Orioles will look to complete a four-game sweep as they take on the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field tonight.
With Corbin Burnes toeing the rubber, my Orioles vs. Rays prediction believes Baltimore will win its sixth game in seven chances against Tampa this season.
I break this matchup down further in my MLB picks for Monday, June 10 below.
Orioles vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Orioles moneyline (-140 at bet365)
My analysis
The Baltimore Orioles have gotten everything they could have asked for and more from Corbin Burnes, whom they acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in the offseason. Over his first 13 starts, Burnes has pitched to a 2.26 ERA on a 1.017 WHIP, which aligns with what he has done throughout his career. While his strikeout rate is down, he’s keeping the ball in the park, not giving up hits, and exhibiting better control than he did in 2023.
Burnes has made up for that reduced strikeout rate (24.2%, the lowest since his rookie year) by regularly inducing weak contact. His hard-hit percentage is down to 30.9%, his lowest number outside of his 2021 season when he won the NL Cy Young. He has posted the lowest line drive percentage of his career (20.3%) and has pushed his ground ball/fly ball ratio to 1.00, the highest of his career.
In short, Burnes isn’t showing many holes in his game. He’s one of the favorites in the AL Cy Young race and can pad his numbers tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays offense has struggled, averaging just 3.89 runs per game with a .659 OPS. If we ignore the Chicago White Sox — who are on their own tier of futility — those numbers rank among the worst in the majors.
Isaac Paredes has been great, hitting .288 with 10 homers and an .855 OPS on the season. But outside of the 25-year-old infielder, nobody is hitting for the Rays. Only one other player with at least 100 plate appearances has an OPS over .700 (Amed Rosario, at .726), and even normally dependable contributors like Randy Arozarena (.179, 8 HR this season) are struggling.
That has left it up to the Tampa Bay pitching staff to find ways to win. And while tonight’s starter Ryan Pepiot has been solid, he’s not a match for Burnes.
Pepiot is striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings and boasts a 0.95 WHIP. However, he is giving up more hard-hit balls this year (38.6%) and has seen his control suffer compared to his outstanding 2023 campaign. As a result, he has a decent 3.96 ERA with a good — but not outstanding — 3.42 FIP. Decent won't get it done against this Orioles offense or opposite Burnes.
Burnes is the superior pitcher and is throwing for the far better team. The Orioles have had Tampa Bay’s number and will pick up another win tonight.
Orioles vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Orioles moneyline
Under 7.5
Corbin Burnes 6+ strikeouts
Burnes should have his way with a relatively weak Rays lineup. Along with taking Baltimore to win outright, I’ll also go with the Under, as Burnes should shut down Tampa Bay and Pepiot is solid enough to keep things under control. I also like Burnes to get at least six strikeouts against a Rays team that is sixth in MLB in strikeouts per game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Rays odds
Orioles vs Rays live odds
Orioles vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+120) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Baltimore -155 | Tampa Bay +130
- Over/Under: Over 7 (+100) | Under 7 (-120)
Orioles vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore has won 10.5 units on the moneyline for bettors this year, while Tampa Bay is down nearly 11.
- The Orioles are 9-4 on the season when Burnes starts. The Rays are 6-4 in Pepiot’s 10 starts this season.
- The Over holds a 34-24 edge in Baltimore’s games and is 34-30 when Tampa Bay plays.
- The Over and Under have split 3-3 in the first six meetings between the Orioles and the Rays this year.
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Orioles vs Rays trend
The Orioles are 4-0 straight up in Burnes’ last four starts overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Rays
Orioles vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Monday, 6-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (6-2, 2.26 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Ryan Pepiot (4-2, 3.96 ERA) |
Orioles vs Rays latest injuries
Orioles vs Rays weather
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