The Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians begin a four-game set at Progressive Field tonight, and I’ve got a pair of MLB picks for the series opener.
My top Orioles vs. Guardians predictions expect the Orange Birds to pull off a low-scoring win on Thursday, April 16.
Who will win Orioles vs Guardians tonight: Orioles moneyline (+110)
Cleveland Guardians starter Parker Messick will face a tough test this evening, as the Baltimore Orioles rank third in wOBA against southpaws.
The 25-year-old lefty has an unsustainable .227 BABIP and 100.0% strand rate, so while his 3.37 xFIP is still an excellent mark through three starts, regression is coming for Messick, and the pendulum is set to swing the other way.
Cleveland is also 20th in wOBA against righties, and Baltimore right-hander Shane Baz has impressed over the past two years, allowing three runs or fewer in 22 of his last 34 starts.
COVERS INTEL: The Orioles own the fifth-lowest bullpen xFIP this season.
Orioles vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-125)
Although I’m anticipating Messick running into problems, I’m not expecting statistical regression to hit him all at once.
Messick is limiting opposing hitters to a 28.9% hard-hit rate and owns positive pitch values on each of his offerings to start the season.
I also expect Baz to have a solid day on the mound. His 2025 numbers were skewed by pitching home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field — a minor-league park — and his arsenal features a plus fastball and knuckle curve.
- ML/RL bets: 4-6, -2.19 units
- Over/Under bets: 3-3, -0.37 units
Orioles vs Guardians odds
- Moneyline: Orioles +113 | Guardians -117
- Run line: Orioles +1.5 (-186) | Guardians -1.5 (+178)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)
Orioles vs Guardians trend
Baltimore has hit the Under in 30 of its last 50 games (+9.00 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Guardians.
How to watch Orioles vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Thursday, April 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MASN, Guardians.TV |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Shane Baz (0-1, 4.50 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Parker Messick (2-0, 0.51 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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