The New York Mets look to stay hot as they continue their California road trip with a three-game series against the San Francisco Giants that begins Monday night in the Bay.
The Mets have won eight of their last 10 games and will look for a quick rebound after Sunday’s 10-0 loss to the Dodgers while the Giants just split a four-game series with the Diamondbacks.
I’m eyeing one starting pitcher’s strikeout prop as my best bet for Game 1. Read on for my MLB picks and Mets vs. Giants predictions below.
Mets vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Keaton Winn Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Monday’s Game 1 features a starting pitching matchup between Jose Quintana of the New York Mets and Keaton Winn of the San Francisco Giants. I’m taking a closer look at Winn, a 26-year-old who earned a spot in the rotation and has pitched decently well with a 4.09 ERA through four starts.
He’s mostly a two-pitch guy, throwing his patented splitter 42.8% of the time and a fastball nearly as often (41.5%). He’s still looking for a reliable third pitch, however. The hope is for his slider to become the tertiary weapon he needs — he’s upped his utilization of the slider from 3.5% last year to 15.6% this year.
His splitter is nasty, but the fastball-splitter pitch mix hasn’t been enough to fool hitters. They’ve been able to sit on his heater and crush it — he ranks in just the eighth percentile in fastball run value, 13th percentile in hard-hit percentage, and fourth percentile in average exit velocity.
The young right-hander’s strikeout prop is set at 4.5 on Sunday. He faces a Mets lineup that has a patient approach at the plate and will make him work. They have the fourth-highest walk rate (10.3%) against right-handed pitchers and their 21.1% strikeout rate is respectable.
Winn still has the potential to be a high-strikeout pitcher further down the road in his career because he throws pretty hard and has a difference-making pitch in his splitter.
That being said, the proof is not in the pudding at this level. He posted a 20.3% K-rate last year and is down to 19.5% this year, so I’ll need to see it before I buy the potential.
Mets vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Keaton Winn Under 4.5 strikeouts
Under 8.5
Jorge Soler 2+ total bases
Jose Quintana is an odd pitcher to analyze because his xERA has been well above his actual ERA for over two years now, yet he’s managed to limit the damage despite what the underlying metrics say about his profile.
He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his four starts and faces a Giants lineup that hasn’t done much of note this year. While I’m fading Winn’s strikeout prop, he’s pitched OK overall this year and I therefore fancy the Under.
The last leg is a bit of a contrast, but Jorge Soler is a power hitter in a game with winds of 10.3 mph blowing out to his pull side (left field) an opposite-handed pitcher, so I like his odds today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Giants odds
Mets vs Giants live odds
Mets vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-220) | San Francisco -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: New York +105 | San Francisco -125
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Mets vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets have won six of their last seven games and are 8-2 in their last 10.
- There’s been some early money on the Over, pushing the total from 7.5 at open to 8 and 8.5, depending on the book. Track any further price changes using our MLB line movement tool.
- The line movement may be because both teams have trended to the Over this year — New York is 12-9 O/U overall and 4-0 O/U in its last four, while San Francisco is 13-9 O/U overall and 2-0-1 O/U in its last three.
Mets vs Giants trend
In the Mets’ last 13 games, the only starting pitchers who have posted 5+ strikeouts against them all have K-rates of above 26.5%. In contrast, Winn’s K-rate is 19.5%. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Giants
Mets vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 4-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, NBCS-Bay Area |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Jose Quintana (1-1, 3.05 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Keaton Winn (1-3, 4.09 ERA) |
Mets vs Giants latest injuries
Mets vs Giants weather
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