The Chicago Cubs are huge home favorites to win their series finale against the Miami Marlins ahead of the 2:20 p.m. first pitch at Wrigley Field on Thursday, Sept. 24.
My top Marlins vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks expect the North Siders to pull away from the Fish this afternoon in the Friendly Confines.
Who will win Marlins vs Cubs today: Cubs -1.5
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The Chicago Cubs aren’t dropping three straight to the Miami Marlins, and I recommend the Cubbies -1.5 run line to 50%.
Miami ranks 22nd in wOBA and 24th in ISO against lefties for the season, and Chicago starter Matthew Boyd has been reliable down the stretch with a respectable 3.72 xERA and 3.77 xFIP across his past five starts.
The Marlins are also 25th in xwOBA with the sixth-highest BABIP over the past 30 days, so I’m anticipating Boyd navigating the Miami lineup with the wind forecast to be blowing in briskly at Wrigley Field.
Finally, I expect the Cubs to plate enough runs to cover the number considering they pace the majors in wOBA while ranking second in xwOBA over the past 30 days.
COVERS INTEL: Chicago Cubs starter Matthew Boyd has held opposing hitters to a minuscule .300 wOBA and .134 ISO since the All-Star break.
Marlins vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 7.5
This Under 7.5 is good to 59% because Miami righty Tyler Phillips also pitching well with a 3.67 xERA and 3.84 xFIP across his past six starts.
So, with the highlighted favorable pitching conditions, Phillips stands to turn in another solid start while largely holding the North Siders in check.
Marlins vs Cubs home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong
A long fly could be tough to come by Thursday afternoon at Wrigley, so I’m going chalky with Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong. He’s second in ISO against right-handed pitchers among qualified hitters, and Phillips has surrendered 1.61 home runs per nine innings with a massive 49.0% hard-hit rate and 40.0% squared-up contact rate to left-handed hitters as a starter.
- ML/RL picks: 65-36, +34.08 units
- Over/Under picks: 38-34. +1.55 units
Marlins vs Cubs weather
The forecast calls for cool temperatures with a strong breeze blowing in from right field at roughly 10 to 15 mph that will suppress fly balls, and particularly punish left-handed hitters.
Marlins vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Marlins 35% | Cubs 66%
- Run line: Marlins +1.5 (54%) | Cubs -1.5 (47%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (50%) | Under 7.5 (51%)
Marlins vs Cubs trend
The Chicago Cubs have covered the run line in 26 of their last 50 games (+4.05 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Cubs.
How to watch Marlins vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Thursday, September 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marlins.TV, Marquee |
| Marlins starting pitcher | Tyler Phillips (5-6, 3.45 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (9-5, 4.06 ERA) |
Marlins vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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