Mariners vs Yankees Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Bryce Miller gives up a lot of hard contact, and while he can often limit the damage, his arsenal is not optimized to face this Yankees lineup. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and others will feast on the Mariners right-hander early and often.

Chris Hatfield - Betting Analyst at
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
May 22, 2024 • 14:44 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Aaron Judge Alex Verdugo New York Yankees MLB
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Yet again, the New York Yankees dropped a game to the Seattle Mariners.

New York came into this series with the longest win streak in baseball. My Mariners vs. Yankees predictions like the Bronx Bombers to start a new streak today after dropping two straight. The Mariners struck early, grabbing a two-run lead in the third inning, and never looked back. Now they'll be looking to make it three in a row tonight. 

Read on for my free MLB picks on Wednesday, May 22nd.

Mariners vs Yankees prediction

My best bet
Yankees moneyline (-162 at BetRivers)

My analysis

I like the New York Yankees to bounce back today. There's a decent edge in my projection of -172, and I'm happily taking it.

New York was unlucky to lose the first two games of this series against the Seattle Mariners and won't make it three.

What remains is the prevailing thought on how I handicap the Yankees. My biggest question is: Does the opposing pitcher have a habit of giving up hard-hit balls? In this case, the answer is a resounding yes. Bryce Miller will take the mound for the Mariners today, and that's been one of his most significant issues in this still-young season.

He'll arrive at this game with a hard-hit rate in the bottom 15% of baseball, a barrel rate in the bottom 5%, and an average exit velocity that's the same. These are all things this Yankees' power-based lineup was built to capitalize on. Big bats like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and the emerging Alex Verdugo should be able to jump on this. They are a big part of why New York ranks in the Top 5 in the aforementioned barrel and hard-hit rates.

If you look at some of Miller's rough games this season, they have come against opponents with a similar makeup as New York. He has allowed four earned runs in three of his nine starts. Those opponents ranked Top 10 in hard-hit and barrel rates. As previously mentioned, the Yankees rank in the Top 5. In this game, we are simply following what the data has told us, and that's why we expect New York to score. 

This handicap is pretty straightforward: I'm backing New York to jump on Miller early and often en route to a rebound win.

Mariners vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)

Yankees moneyline

Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases

While it's not the most exciting same-game parlay, it should get the job done. Judge has had limited matchups against Miller, but they've been good ones, batting over .600 against him in his seven plate appearances. It makes sense, too. Judge is either the best or second-best power bat in the Yankees lineup, and as we've highlighted, that's been Miller's most significant issue. I expect him to seize on those issues today and rope multiple hard-hit balls into the outfield.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mariners vs Yankees odds

Mariners vs Yankees live odds

Mariners vs Yankees opening odds

  • Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-165) | New York -1.5 (+135)
  • Moneyline: Seattle +122 | New York -144
  • Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Mariners vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Bettors are still up on New York over its last 10 games at a total of +2 units.
  • This moneyline price opened at -144 at most shops and is set to close well north of -160.
  • Neither team had an advantage entering this series, with both teams holding serve at 5-5 over the last 10 meetings.
  • That has changed since the Mariners took the series' first two games.

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Mariners vs Yankees trend

The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees

Rangers vs Phillies game info

Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, NY
Date: Wednesday, 5-22-2024
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: Amazon Prime
Seattle starting pitcher: Bryce Miller
(3-4 3.08 ERA)
New York starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes
(2-4, 3.56 ERA)

Mariners vs Yankees latest injuries

Mariners vs Yankees weather

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