The red-hot San Diego Padres are looking to extend their win streak to eight as they take on the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park tonight at 8:40 p.m. ET.
However, my Mariners vs Padres predictions have Seattle snatching the series finale, with Luis Castillo on the mound.
Read more for my MLB picks for Thursday, April 16.
Who will win Mariners vs Padres tonight: Mariners moneyline (-111)
The Seattle Mariners lost a 7-6 nail-biter last night and will have Luis Castillo on the mound for tonight's rubber match.
While he’s struggled so far with a 6.92 ERA through three starts, the righty has had lots of success against this red-hot San Diego Padres lineup.
Castillo has held them to a .200 average across 65 at-bats while striking out 23. He’s shut down the likes of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr.
On the other side, Walker Buehler owns a 4.97 ERA, and Seattle’s lineup is hitting .325 against him across 40 at-bats. Cal Raleigh alone is 5-for-6.
COVERS INTEL: Castillo’s best outing of the season so far was on the road, tossing six shutout innings against the Yankees. 
Mariners vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
It’s only a matter of time until Castillo finds consistency again. After all, he’s an elite starter, and this outing profiles as the perfect opportunity to deal. The right-hander has also been a bit unlucky with a .429 BABIP and a 3.16 FIP.
While Buehler can be inconsistent, he’s only given up seven earned runs across three appearances. I do think Seattle hits him around a bit, but I’m not expecting them to tag him with a bunch of runs. And even if he is shaky, the Padres boast a Top-5 bullpen (3.04 ERA, 25.6 K%) that can stop the bleeding.
Two of the last three meetings between San Diego and Seattle have also cashed the Under.
- ML/RL bets: 4-1, +0.49 units
- Over/Under bets: 4-1, +2.54 units
Mariners vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Seattle -120 | San Diego +102
- Run line: Seattle -1.5 (+142) | San Diego +1.5 (-172)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-102) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Mariners vs Padres trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 away games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Padres.
How to watch Mariners vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Thursday, April 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Mariners.TV, Padres.TV |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Luis Castillo (0-0, 6.92 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Walker Buehler (0-1, 4.97 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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