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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 4, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+118 
|
o8.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -178
|
|
4.13 |
-128
|
u8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +155 
|
Detroit
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mizes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Monteros last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Mizes last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Allens last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Allens last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.92 |
-153
|
o9.5 -103 
|
-1.5 +100 
|
|
4.97 |
+143
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -119 
|
Milwaukee
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.68 |
+105
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
3.88 |
-110
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +172
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Phillies are 6-0 in Sanchezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+257)
o0.5+257
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.26 |
+170
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -130 
|
|
5.56 |
-190 
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +115
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Johnsons last 6 starts on grass.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Jones' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.82 |
-115
|
o8.0 -114
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
4.30 |
+105
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -160
|
Boston
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 5-0 in Bazs last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Blaze Alexander u0.5 Total Hits (+207)
u0.5+207
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.59 |
-150
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.57 |
+143
|
u8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -130
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Imanagas last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Marlins are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+183)
o0.5+183
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
+166
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -129
|
|
5.45 |
-180
|
u8.0 -105
|
-1.5 +120
|
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Giants last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-1 in McLeans last 6 starts vs. National League West.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Mets last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.27 |
+125
|
o7.5 -141
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
|
4.91 |
-135
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Griffins last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
o0.5+175
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.28 |
+105
|
o8.5 -135
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.45 |
-115
|
u9.5 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0-1 in Matthews' last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Twins are 6-0 in Matthews' last 6 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts on grass.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 8-0 in Feddes last 8 starts.
Top Projection
Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+191)
o0.5+191
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.85 |
-104
|
o8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +158
|
|
4.59 |
+105
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 on grass.
- Rays are 7-0 in Martinezs last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 10-1 in Rangers last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 games following a win.
Top Projection
Trevor Williams u2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+100)
u2.5+100
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.49 |
+120
|
o8.5 -118
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.48 |
-130
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +160
|
Arizona
- Over is 4-0-2 in Kellys last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Kellys last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kellys last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 1-0-3 in Astros last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.17 |
+105
|
o9.5 -120
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.01 |
-115
|
u10.0 -114
|
-1.5 +140
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.51 |
-120
|
o11.5 +100
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
5.71 |
+115
|
u11.5 -115
|
+1.5 -134
|
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games following a loss.
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
o1.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.58 |
-110
|
o7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
3.36 |
+110
|
u7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -155
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Yankees last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
San Diego
- Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. American League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Trent Grisham o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
o0.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.47 |
+253
|
o8.0 -125
|
+2.5 -150
|
|
4.90 |
-270
|
u8.5 -115
|
-2.5 +110
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 6-0 in Snells last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 5-1 in Snells last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Top Projection
Dylan Crews o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.23 |
+200
|
o5.0 -435
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
4.94 |
-210
|
u7.5 -122
|
-1.5 +105
|
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Gilberts last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total RBIs (+158)
o0.5+160
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 2:10 PM ET
Total
u8.5 (-121)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Not only is Montero having one of the best years of his career and is in a great matchup against Cleveland, but the trends are on our side, too. The Under is 7-0 in Montero's last seven starts as a road underdog, and you shouldn't expect Cleveland to smudge that perfect mark, either. It helps us here that the Guardians are the worst-hitting team with runners in scoring position in the big leagues, owning just a .682 OPS in that situation this season. All the numbers point toward the Under here.
Moneyline
DET (+119)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I'm giving the Detroit Tigers the benefit of the doubt in this one, with Keider Montero historically finding success against this Guardians lineup. He's limited Cleveland to a .169 xBA and .223 xwOBA over nearly 80 plate appearances and is going up against a team that owns just a .682 OPS with runners in scoring position - the worst mark in the majors. That'll play today. On the other side, the Tigers have beat up on Logan Allen, registering a .355 average in 38 at-bats. This includes a 5-for-8 mark from Spencer Torkelson. If Detroit is scoring, he's probably at the center of it. The dogs are barking.
MIL
@
CIN
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jake Bauers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+335)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Milwaukee’s leader in barrel rate against Lowder’s pitch mix this season is…Jake Bauers!
The veteran lefty profiles amazingly well, generating barrels at nearly a 15% clip while posting a healthy .231 ISO to boot.
Bauers also owns a magnificent track record when facing Rhett Lowder, going 5-for-8 with a pair of homers.
Total
o9.5 (-107)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Rhett Lowder’s ERA sits at 8.13 when isolating seven matchups against teams in the Top-10 in OBP and xwOBA vs. righties.
That includes two starts against the Milwaukee Brewers, in which Lowder combined to allow nine runs in just over 10 innings of work.
Drohan owns a 4.70 xERA the past month and the Cincinnati Reds do possess real power.
Play to 53%.
ATL
@
PHI
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Kyle Schwarber is hitting a respectable .263 against Chris Sale. More importantly, he has generated real power with a pair of home runs and a triple.
Sale attacks left-handed hitters with sliders, sinkers, and four-seams. Schwarber hasn’t taken a lefty yard on the slider this season but owns ISOs of .255 and .404 against sinkers and four-seamers.
Total
u6.5 (+109)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Chris Sale posted a 2.60 xERA the past month while allowing just three barrels in 27 innings of work. It’s almost impossible to square him up.
Cristopher Sanchez is sporting a 2.51 FIP in Philadelphia, and conceded two or less in 14 of 16 starts – including a zero against the Braves.
Play to 52%.
LAA
@
PIT
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Esmerlyn Valdez o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Esmerlyn Valdez in the 97th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. PNC Park profiles as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for righty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (89%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Esmerlyn Valdez has a ton of pop (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (31.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryan Johnson doesn't generate many whiffs (6th percentile K%) — great news for Valdez.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today.
Strikeouts Thrown
Jared Jones u5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
Projection 5.34
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Jones to throw 78 pitches in this game (9th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. The #4 park in the game for suppressing strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in MLB, which often leads to better offense.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (88%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
BOS
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Roman Anthony o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his BABIP talent, Roman Anthony is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Roman Anthony is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Roman Anthony will have an advantage today.. Roman Anthony hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total Bases
Dylan Beavers o1.5 Total Bases (+254)
Projection 1.21
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Beavers in the 79th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Among all major league parks, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF dimensions are the shallowest.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Dylan Beavers will hold that advantage today.
CHC
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Michael Busch o0.5 Total Home Runs (+575)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
There’s been a considerable dip in Busch’s ISO against righties this season. He posted a rock-solid .245 mark across the past two seasons but is all the way down to a .141 ISO in 2026. So, with Miami righty Janson Junk allowing a healthy 16.7 blast-contact percentage at home, this is a long number for Busch to cash in on statistical correction and leave the yard tonight.
Total
u8.5 (-126)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Marlins rank 27th in xwOBA and 25th in ISO over the past 30 days, while also checking in 20th in wOBA against lefties for the season. On top of that, Miami has also played to the Under in 26 of their last 40 home games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI). This is also a potential letdown spot for Chicago following the split of a key, divisional series against the Milwaukee Brewers, in which the Cubs scattered just 11 runs across the final three games.
SF
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in baseball.. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Juan Soto hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Juan Soto will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Carson Benge o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Benge in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Carson Benge is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Carson Benge has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Carson Benge will hold that advantage today.
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Kevin McGonigle o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin McGonigle in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Kevin McGonigle is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Kevin McGonigle has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his home run skill, Riley Greene ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #2 field in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.
MIN
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Zebby Matthews u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+104)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Zebby Matthews is rolling, staying under 2.5 earned runs in three straight outings while posting a 1.92 FIP over his last two appearances. He has avoided walks and homers, and now faces a White Sox lineup with a 66 wRC+ recently.
Total Bases
Kody Clemens o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.97
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Kody Clemens ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kody Clemens is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #6 ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
TB
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Cedric Mullins o1.5 Total Bases (+202)
Projection 1.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Considering Trevor Williams's large platoon split, Cedric Mullins will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.
Total Bases
Corey Seager o1.5 Total Bases (+111)
Projection 1.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 13th-best hitter in the league.. Corey Seager is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Corey Seager will have the handedness advantage over Nick Martinez in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.
AZ
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in MLB.. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Merrill Kelly in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 2.11
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. HRs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in MLB.. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Merrill Kelly in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.
TOR
@
KC
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+475)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Why can't I quit this dude? I mean, he has been incredibly efficient over his last two games, he's produced productive at-bats, and has great numbers against Lynch. Vladdy owns a .790 xSLG in this matchup, which should be enough to go yard. At this price, I have to hit the button on him.
Total
o10.0 (-105)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Where has this Toronto Blue Jays offense been all year? They exploded for 17 runs across their last two games against the Cleveland Guardians and have a plus matchup against Daniel Lynch, who will be on another short leash tonight. If the Jays can get to Lynch early, they should be able to eat the second-worst bullpen in the bigs alive (5.09 ERA). On the other side, Jameson Taillon is making his first start back from injury after rocking a 11.88 ERA in July and 3.38 ERA in August. With a bullpen that was used up yesterday afternoon, the Royals will do their part to get us across the line.
STL
@
COL
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (-135)
Projection 2.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jordan Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°.
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 89°.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Ezequiel Tovar will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
NYY
@
SD
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1300)
Projection 0.08
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Among all stadiums, Petco Park's centerfield fences are the 2nd-shallowest.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Max Fried will hold the platoon advantage against Jake Cronenworth in today's game.. Jake Cronenworth will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Ben Rice o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Rice in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Ben Rice is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Ben Rice will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler today.
WAS
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Freddie Freeman u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Dodger Stadium ranks as the #21 venue in Major League Baseball for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jackson Kent will hold the platoon advantage over Freddie Freeman in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the the Washington Nationals.
Total Bases
Kyle Tucker u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.. Hitting from the same side that Jackson Kent throws from, Kyle Tucker will have a disadvantage in today's matchup.. Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 76th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the the Washington Nationals.
ATH
@
SEA
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Moneyline
SEA (-209)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Seattle has the cleanest full-game profile with JT Ginn struggling badly and Logan Gilbert in much better form. Ginn owns a 6.73 FIP over the last two weeks with command and homer issues, while Gilbert’s 2.86 xERA and Seattle’s 111 wRC+ give the Mariners the stronger edge.
Total Bases
J.P. Crawford o1.5 Total Bases (+255)
Projection 1.22
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Among all major league stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Because of Kade Morris's huge platoon split, J.P. Crawford will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. The Athletics have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so J.P. Crawford stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.. J.P. Crawford has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
