MLB Picks

Heriberto Hernandez is in an excellent position to do damage against Milwaukee Brewers left hander Robert Gasser on Sunday. Hernandez carries an elite Batters-Box rating with over 75% arsenal coverage and has been one of Miami's best hitters against southpaws, posting a .759 SLG, 1.126 OPS, and .444 ISO while consistently producing loud contact. Gasser has been vulnerable to right handed hitters at home, allowing plenty of elevated contact, and his underlying expected metrics over his last 60 batters faced continue to trend in the wrong direction. Hernandez has all the ingredients to deliver another extra base hit or home run.

Yordan Alvarez is my favorite home run play on the board today. He enters as the highest rated hitter on Batters-Box with 100% arsenal coverage against Brandon Young, a matchup that checks every box. When Alvarez has received an elite rating this season, he has homered 35% of the time over a 25 game sample. He's also been crushing right-handed pitching lately, posting elite power numbers and consistently barreling baseballs. On the other side, Young has struggled badly against left-handed hitters, allowing plenty of hard contact and elevated balls. Everything lines up for Alvarez to take advantage in this matchup.

Germán Márquez finds himself in another difficult spot against a Royals lineup that owns the highest average hitter matchup rating on the slate. Kansas City features six elite rated hitters and three more with strong ratings, making this a dangerous matchup despite its inconsistent offensive production this season. The Royals have also swung the bat much better at home recently, posting a 113 wRC+, .332 wOBA, and .750 OPS over their last 12 games. Márquez has struggled badly in his last five starts, and with his declining strikeout rate and elevated hard contact allowed, Kansas City should have plenty of scoring opportunities this afternoon.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is in an excellent spot against the Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews on Sunday. Crow-Armstrong enters the matchup with an elite rating and 100% arsenal coverage, while swinging one of the hotter bats against right-handed pitching. Over his last 30 at-bats versus righties, he owns a .667 SLG, 1.117 OPS, .355 ISO, nearly a 40% hard-hit rate, and a 14.3% barrel rate. Matthews has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters recently, allowing a 50% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, .852 xSLG, and .390 xwOBA. The hard contact he's surrendering makes Crow-Armstrong a strong home run candidate.

Ben Rice has a 162 wRC+ in away games, which ranks fourth among hitters, and there's hitter-friendly weather in Chavez Ravine with temps in the upper 70s and mild wind blowing out to right field. He's been on fire this month (.372/.481/.860) and has eclipsed this number in six of his last seven.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.