Tonight’s MLB player props slate is loaded with heavy hitters in strong matchups. Can guys like Yordan Alvarez or Jackson Chourio cash in and send one out of the yard for us tonight?
My best home run props for Wednesday, July 1 certainly hope so.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
+225 |
 Jackson Chourio |
+361 |
 Esteury Ruiz |
+589 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +10387 |
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+225)
Let me live, people! Yes, it is, in fact, Yordan Alvarez once again.
This evening he draws Minnesota Twins right hander Taj Bradley, who we all know struggles against left handed hitters. Away from home this season, Bradley is allowing lefties to elevate the ball at a 68.8% clip while giving up a 40% hard hit rate.
Over his last 60 left handed hitters faced, those numbers climb to a 53.3% hard hit rate, a 21.1% barrel rate, and a 71.1% elevation rate. During that stretch, lefties have also posted a .690 xSLG and .372 xwOBA against him.
Against Bradley, Alvarez not only owns an elite rating on Batters-Box, but he also covers nearly 90% of Bradley's arsenal. When rated elite this season, Alvarez is leaving the yard 30% of the time.
He has done nothing but scorch baseballs over 105 mph all week, and yesterday one finally left the yard. He is due for more.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, MNNT
Home run pick: Jackson Chourio (+361)
The Milwaukee Brewers’ young buck finds himself in a great spot against Cincinnati Reds left hander Andrew Abbott, who has struggled against right handed hitters this season. Over his last 90 batters faced, those hitters are generating a 43% hard hit rate and a 13% barrel rate.
During that stretch, Abbott owns a 5.59 xERA, while allowing a .354 xBA, .662 xSLG, and .379 xwOBA.
Jackson Chourio has been on a tear against southpaws. Over his last 60 plate appearances against left handers, he is posting a .345 batting average and .600 slugging percentage with a 1.000 OPS, while generating a 55% hard hit rate and a 12.5% barrel rate.
With all the loud contact Abbott has been giving up, I think the future of Milwaukee helps lead the way here.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Home run pick: Esteury Ruiz (+589)
This is more of a fun one due to Esteury Ruiz having the fourth highest matchup rating on Batters-Box as he draws Colorado Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland. Against Freeland, Ruiz only covers around 35% of his arsenal, which is not ideal. However, his expected numbers are far greater, covering over 50%.
Freeland has had zero ounces of fun against right-handed hitters this season. The last 30 he has faced are producing a 45.8% hard hit rate and a 25% barrel rate while elevating the baseball 70.8% of the time. During that stretch, those hitters own a .687 xSLG and a .455 xwOBA.
With the Miami Marlins coming off putting up two touchdowns, I am not expecting much, just for Ruiz to go YA YA.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Rockies.TV
- HR picks: 65-237, +9.04 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Yordan Alvarez |
Bet Now +10387 |
| Jackson Chourio |
|
| Esteury Ruiz |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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