Opening Day gets underway Thursday with a stacked 14-game MLB slate.
I have compiled my three best home run props for the first day of action. As always, monitor the odds and available pricing, as the player prop market is constantly changing.
Here are my free MLB player props for Thursday, March 27.
Best MLB home run props today
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Rhys Hoskins (+390 at FanDuel) 
Adley Rutschman (+600 at FanDuel)
Matt McLain (+630 at FanDuel)
HR picks for March 27
Rhys Hoskins (+390 at FanDuel)
The New York Yankees host the Milwaukee Brewers in the first game of Thursday’s schedule. Left-hander Carlos Rodón takes the mound for New York, and he should be a good fade candidate in this home run market.
Last season, Rodón finished in the fourth percentile in barrel rate and the 32nd percentile in hard-hit rate. These two power metrics are worth noting, as Rhys Hoskins ranked in the 86th percentile and 63rd percentile, respectively, in those categories last year.
Furthermore, Hoskins is 3-for-9 against Rodón with a .778 slugging percentage and .612 expected slugging percentage. One of those three hits was a home run, something we could see again on Thursday.
Hoskins is slated to hit in the cleanup spot for the Brewers. He has recorded at least 26 home runs in each of his past five seasons (excluding the shortened COVID-19 year).
Adley Rutchsman (+600 at FanDuel)
Just a few minutes after the first pitch of the Brewers-Yankees game, the second outing of the afternoon is set to take place, with the Toronto Blue Jays hosting the Baltimore Orioles. We’re going to back Baltimore catcher Adley Rutschman to kick off this campaign in great form.
The former first overall pick is looking to bounce back from a down year in 2024, but we know the ceiling is there. In just his second season in 2023, Rutschman ranked in the top quarter of the league in expected slugging, launch angle sweet-spot rate, and squared-up rate.
Could he return to that form on Opening Day against right-hander José Berríos? It’s certainly possible, given that Berríos finished 2024 in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity.
Additionally, Rutschman boasts a 1.091 slugging percentage and .740 expected slugging through 24 plate appearances against Berríos. He has homered three times over that stretch.
Matt McLain (+630 at FanDuel)
Later in the afternoon, the Cincinnati Reds host the San Francisco Giants. Right-hander Logan Webb takes the mound for San Francisco, and he should serve as a good fade candidate in this market.
Last season, Webb ranked in the 23rd percentile in average exit velocity and the fourth percentile in hard-hit rate. That brings us to Cincinnati’s Matt McLain, who missed all of last season due to a shoulder injury.
However, the former 17th overall draft pick posted a phenomenal rookie year in 2023, and expectations are high for him to pick up where he left off. That season, McLain sat in the top half of the league in barrel rate.
McLain faced Webb in one outing during that impressive rookie campaign, going 1-for-3 with a home run.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Tyler O'Neill (+400)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
(+500) - Shohei Ohtani
(+450) - Juan Soto
(+550) - Cody Bellinger
(+725)
Betting info courtesy of BetMGM
Not intended for use in MA.
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