The AL Central division is heating up, and we have a terrific four-game series beginning with Game 1 of a doubleheader between the first-place Cleveland Guardians and second-place Minnesota Twins on Friday afternoon.
It’s always a playoff atmosphere whenever these two clubs meet, and my Guardians vs. Twins predictions and MLB picks for this clash expect both clubs' lack of offensive production to continue when the Guardians meet the Twins on August 9.
Guardians vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Friday’s matinee between the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins is a makeup game from their April 7 rainout and Game 1 a day/night doubleheader between the AL Central heavyweights.
The Guardians have won all five 2024 meetings with the Twins but come into this series riding a five-game losing streak after a disastrous 2-5 homestand. Cleveland scored only 21 runs across their past five and may struggle to score runs this afternoon against Twins starter Bailey Ober.
Ober has been filthy across his last five starts. He’s allowed eight earned runs across 34 innings with 36 punchouts and four bombs. He’s also pitched deep into ballgames with five quality starts, too. Ober credits a resurgent changeup for his effectiveness against lefties (.213 BABIP), and he could see as many as eight left-handed bats today.
Minnesota has scored 27 runs across its past five but 13 in one game against the Chicago White Sox. The Twins strand more runners in scoring position than anyone at home (3.96) which could be a problem against the best bullpen in baseball.
Cleveland expects Triston McKenzie to make his first start since poor command (5.82 walks per nine innings) and issues with the long ball (2.26 home runs per nine) led to his June 28 demotion to Triple-A.
McKenzie whiffed 11 in his last start against Triple-A Syracuse which should give him additional confidence against an injury-riddled Twins offense. McKenzie allowed one earned run across 6 2/3 innings in his May 17 start against Minnesota, and I expect him to have similar results today before turning this one over to the best bullpen in baseball.
The starting pitching should be good, THE BAT projects strong winds blowing in from CF, and the trend of two clubs struggling to score runs will continue in Game 1.
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Guardians vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 RBI
I like the Under as my best bet, but I also like Guardians 3B Jose Ramirez to record at least one RBI.
Ramirez boasts an MLB second-best 96 RBI this season and is riding a five-game hitting streak batting third in the Cleveland lineup. He’s recorded 1+ RBI in eight of his last 10, and while the sample size is small, he’s also 5-for-13 with a pair of doubles, one HR, and three RBI lifetime against Ober.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Twins odds
Guardians vs Twins live odds
Guardians vs Twins opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-192) | Minnesota -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Cleveland +120 | Minnesota -142
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Guardians vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Guardians are 5-0 this season against the Twins. Cleveland moneyline markets are trading as high as +120 with 17% of the wagers and 90% of the cash at FanDuel on the Guards.
- Minnesota is 32-21 this season at Target Field and is trading as low as -130 with DraftKings reporting 83% of the bets and 10% of the money on the Twins.
- Over/Under markets are reporting a wide range of 7 to 8. Over bettors can find Over 7 (-125) while Under 8 (-105) is widely available as of Friday morning.
Guardians vs Twins trend
The Guardians have hit the Under in 31 of their previous 52 away games (+10.25 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Twins.
Guardians vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, 8-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Triston McKenzie (3-5, 5.11 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Bailey Ober (11-5, 3.69 ERA) |
Guardians vs Twins latest injuries
Guardians vs Twins weather
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