The first game of a series between the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Francisco Giants gets underway tonight at Rickwood Field — the oldest professional ballpark in the United States. The location of this game serves as a tribute to the Negro Leagues.
MLB odds have St. Louis as a slight -122 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Giants vs. Cardinals prediction is bullish on a high-scoring affair, primarily due to the starting pitching matchup. Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, June 20.
Giants vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The San Francisco Giants hand the ball to right-hander Keaton Winn, who has struggled mightily in his sophomore season. Winn is 3-7 through 11 starts with a fade-worthy 6.66 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
He enters this contest in particularly poor form, posting an 0-4 record with a 13.02 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over his past five starts. There were nine or more total runs scored in four of those five outings.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, given that Winn ranks in the ninth percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. If Winn gets chased early, then I’m not sure how much the Giants’ bullpen can bail him out as their relief pitching ranks in the bottom half of the league in both ERA and FIP.
Meanwhile, right-hander Andre Pallante takes the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, and he is almost as untrustworthy as Winn. Bouncing between the bullpen and rotation this season, Pallante possesses a 4.61 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.
Like Winn, Pallante’s analytics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 38th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, and hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against San Francisco, a team that ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, and OPS.
It’s a small sample size, but this current Giants lineup boasts a .300 BA, .600 SLG and .455 wOBA through 13 combined career plate appearances against Pallante.
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Giants vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Cardinals moneyline
Matt Carpenter Over 0.5 hits
I already discussed how much I distrust each starting pitcher above, but Pallante is still the superior option. He outranks Winn this season in ERA, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
If we are backing both a high-scoring game as well as a St. Louis victory, then a highly correlated outcome would be for Matt Carpenter to record a hit in the process. Carpenter is 1-for-3 in his career against Winn with a double.
Carpenter also enters this matchup in good form with seven hits over his past seven games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Cardinals odds
Giants vs Cardinals live odds
Giants vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco -1.5 (+146) | St. Louis +1.5 (-176)
- Moneyline: San Francisco +110 | St. Louis -122
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-125) | Under 8.5 (+105)
Giants vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- St. Louis opened as a -130 favorite and has since moved to -122. This movement surprises me, but I think the reason for it is that San Francisco boasts the better lineup.
- I think the gap between starting pitchers is wider than the gap between these lineups, and that advantage goes to the Cardinals.
- The total opened at 8.5 and remains at that number as of Wednesday evening. Due to all the aforementioned variables, I think the only direction this line goes is up.
Giants vs Cardinals trend
There have been nine or more total runs scored in four of Winn’s past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Cardinals
Giants vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Rickwood Field, Birmingham, AL |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Keaton Winn (3-7, 6.66 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Andre Pallante (2-3, 4.61 ERA) |
Giants vs Cardinals latest injuries
Giants vs Cardinals weather
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