MLB Expert Picks & Baseball Predictions July 22

We've got a loaded MLB Wednesday slate, and our experts present their top MLB picks for the evening.

Check out our MLB expert picks for July 22, including Tampa Bay making life a bit more miserable for the Blue Jays.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Jason Wilson: LAD/PHI o9.5	+100
Josh Inglis: TB ML	-104
Colby Marchio: DET/CHI o7.5	-125

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

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Jason Wilson's expert pick: Dodgers vs. Phillies Over 9.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

Any hopes of an Aaron Nola rebound season seem dashed thanks to a 5.68 ERA (which, technically, is better than last year) and a career-worst 2.01 HR/9. He's getting barreled far too often (10.1%) as opponents are squaring his fastball up more than ever.

That was his bread-and-butter pitch as recently as 2024. The Los Angeles Dodgers haven't been an overwhelming offense of late, but Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and others can measure up well against Nola, who has a worse home ERA (6.50) than road one (5.06).

While that has me tempted to take the Dodgers on the run line at +138, SP Eric Lauer gives me pause. He's improved his fortunes since arriving from Toronto, but that 3.12 ERA is a mirage, and he's still giving up way too many home runs while missing zero bats.

Take the Over.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNLA, NBCSP

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Rays moneyline

Price: 49¢ (-104) at Polymarket

Go ask any Toronto Blue Jays fan how the season is going, and you'll likely get the same negative response. Toronto can't score coming out of the break, and the offense has been one of the worst in baseball all season, ranking dead last in wOBA, ISO, and runs scored while sitting in the bottom five in nearly every other offensive category not named K%.

Braydon Fisher will open the game before handing things off to Spencer Miles, who is coming off a six-run outing against the White Sox last Friday. This is a defeated Toronto lineup getting nothing from its biggest bats, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Dalton Varsho, and Kazuma Okamoto combining to hit just .186 over the last two weeks.

I can't see how a bullpen game against the Tampa Bay Rays — a team that has won seven of the last eight meetings — makes Toronto the favorite. Griffin Jax already faced the Jays once this season and needed just 66 pitches to throw five shutout innings.

This is a low point for the Blue Jays, and this is an offense worth fading after scoring just eight runs through five games since the All-Star break.

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Rays.TV, SportsNet

Colby Marchio's expert pick: Tigers vs. Cubs Over 7.5

Price: 47¢ (-125) at Polymarket

Typically, a team coming off a ten-plus run outburst suggests a natural offensive regression that favors the Under, but tonight’s matchup presents a prime spot to shatter that.

Standing in the way of a quiet evening is Colin Rea, whose recent outings have featured an alarmingly high WHIP and elevated home run rate. Throwing hittable, middle-middle pitches to a Detroit Tigers lineup primed to bounce back makes a low-scoring affair unlikely.

With Rea vulnerable to hard contact and the bats on Chicago Cubs are already in a groove, expect early offensive fireworks to push this game over the 7.5 total with ease.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• How to watch: ESPN

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