The Los Angeles Dodgers boast the league’s best run differential as they continue their pursuit of a third straight World Series title, and tonight's favorable matchup against embattled right-hander Mitch Keller offers another opportunity for the NL heavyweights to flex their elite offense.
With Polymarket offering a loaded slate from afternoon to night, here are our best MLB picks for Thursday, June 11.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: ARI/MIA Under 8.5 |
+100 |
 Jon Metler: ATL ML |
-120 |
 Neil Parker: LAD -1.5 |
+104 |
 Joe Osborne: BAL ML |
+100 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Diamondbacks/Marlins Under 8.5
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
This is one of the few games on the board where both teams are traveling, which is why it's an afternoon start and could lead to weaker lineups than usual. The Miami Marlins head north to Pittsburgh tomorrow, while the Arizona Diamondbacks open a series against Cincinnati on Friday.
Arizona put up a donut last night, and while the Fish scored eight runs, six of those came in a single fourth inning. I trust both bullpens, and the Diamondbacks should need to use some relief arms today, which could result in high-leverage relievers working in non-high-leverage spots.
Let's hope for some quick at-bats and getaway-day baseball.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Dbacks.TV, Marlins.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 54¢ (-120) at Polymarket
Ronald Acuna Jr. landing on the IL is certainly a blow to the Atlanta Braves' lineup, but I think the market may be overreacting to the news. Against left-hander Anthony Kay, Atlanta still has plenty of ways to generate offense, which creates some value at the current price.
One reason is the added depth provided by right-handed hitters Jorge Mateo and Ha-Seong Kim near the bottom of the order. Their presence lengthens the lineup and helps keep pressure on opposing pitchers when the batting order turns over. Mateo is hitting .300 on the season and .324 against left-handed pitching, while Kim has consistently produced better numbers against southpaws throughout his career.
Even without Acuna, this lineup is built to match up well against a left-handed starter, and that reality isn't being fully reflected in the market. I make the Braves closer to a 57-cent favorite against the Chicago White Sox.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: BravesVision, CHSN
Neil Parker's expert pick: Dodgers -1.5
Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket
The Los Angeles Dodgers boast the highest wOBA against righties this season and the highest overall xwOBA over the past 30 days, so I’m anticipating Pittsburgh Pirates' right-hander Mitch Keller to have his hands full.
Keller doesn’t have a single positive pitch value across his past five starts, which paints the perfect picture for why he’s allowed 24 runs across 26 innings during the skid.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's bullpen has already been tasked with eight innings of work this series, and the Pirates rank 26th in reliever ERA across the past two weeks.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: SportsNet LA, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Orioles moneyline
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
I'll happily back the home underdog in a matchup where the splits strongly favor the Baltimore Orioles.
Kyle Bradish is on a tear at Camden Yards, allowing just one earned run across his last three home starts. On the other side, Seattle Mariners' starter Bryan Woo has struggled away from the Emerald City, carrying a 5.08 road ERA and surrendering 18 earned runs over his last four road outings.
Baltimore also enters in better offensive form, ranking 10th in OPS over the past week while remaining one of baseball's most productive home offenses.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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