How about another 2-1 SU day for over 10 units last night? The dingers are dinging, and the MLB player props are popping this week. Let's stay hot and get on the good side of zero for the season.
Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola are two of the most generous home-run pitchers in baseball, and not adding Minnesota's or Boston's bats to the card would be a bad decision.
These are my favorite MLB home run props for Thursday, Aug. 13.
MLB home run props for today
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Ceddanne Rafaela
Royce Lewis
Home run prediction: Ceddanne Rafaela (+550)
Max Scherzer has pitched above expectations since returning to the rotation, but he is still giving up plenty of homers and has the second-worst HR/9 among MLB starters with at least 30 innings. His HR/FB rate is also near the basement of the league. The Red Sox have a great long-ball matchup, and my money is going on Ceddanne Rafaela at +550.
The price is the most appetizing thing here, with other top-end bats shorter than +350 today. Rafaela has five of his 16 homers over the last two weeks, is slugging .632 over those 14 days, and handles righties, meaning likely three plate appearances vs. Scherzer near the top of this order.
Wilyer Abreu and Willson Contreras might be the higher-volume picks on a short slate, but getting more than 200 points with Rafaela is my move, and one I'd play to +450.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, NESN
Home run prediction: Royce Lewis (+450)
It’s a small slate, but HR bettors get Aaron Nola, who has allowed the most dingers in baseball this year, at a makeshift MLB stadium with short fences and nothing but corn in the outfield. Nola is the best home-run target today, as his fall has been spectacular. He’s allowed 10 homers over his last 33 innings across six games, just took a 105-mph laser beam off his knee in his last start, and today’s setting might not help him.
The Iowa Cubs and St. Paul Saints played on this field Tuesday and ripped four combined dingers — the only extra-base hits of the game. In the other two "Field of Dreams" games, played on a different diamond but with a similar layout, there have been seven total homers.
Royce Lewis is the hottest stick in the Minny lineup. He has three homers over the last two weeks and leads the team in slugging (.667), ISO (.278), wOBA (.461), and HardHit% (47.4%). His 76.3-mph swing speed over that stretch is also a Top-25 mark in all of baseball.
Send it to the maize, Royce.
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Netflix
- HR picks: 31-150, -0.37 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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