Happy Thursday, folks!
It’s a smaller slate tonight, but there are still plenty of spots to attack.
Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate, and make sure to check out all of our MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 13!
MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 13
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Piratesvs  Marlins |
+113 |
 Guardiansvs  Tigers |
-117 |
 Marinersvs  Yankees |
-133 |
 Redsvs  White Sox |
+122 |
 Red Soxvs  Blue Jays |
-153 |
 Cubsvs  Nationals |
-130 |
 Philliesvs  Twins |
-104 |
 Rangersvs  Angels |
+147 |
 Brewersvs  Dodgers |
-135 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of August 13.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 13
Pirates vs Marlins: Marlins (+113)
Marlins win probability: 47%
I think the Fightin’ Fish are about to go on another run. Their bats have come alive over their last 12 games, posting a 104 wRC+ and .317 wOBA while keeping the walk rate just a hair under 10%. Meanwhile, the Pirates have been ice-cold at the dish, posting an 82 wRC+, .283 wOBA, and .098 ISO during that stretch.
Pirates right-hander Braxton Ashcraft has improved over his last three starts, but he still owns a 7.88 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over his last five.
I want the Marlins at plus money!
Guardians vs Tigers: Guardians (-117)
Guardians win probability: 46%
I find it extremely hard to fade the Guardians with left-hander Parker Messick on the bump. The young starter has been nails all season, posting a 2.52 ERA, 2.86 xERA, and 1.03 WHIP. Messick also does a great job limiting hard contact and barrels.
Meanwhile, Keider Montero is on the rubber for the Tigers, sporting a 4.96 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over his last three outings. Cleveland’s offense has been heating up over its last 12 games, and the Guardians can get after Montero this evening.
Give me Cleveland.
Mariners vs Yankees: Yankees (-133)
Yankees win probability: 57%
I say this every time I write about the Mariners, and I stand by it, right or wrong. I will not trust an offense that owns a 59 wRC+, .119 ISO, and 6.4% barrel rate over its last six games. To go back even further, Seattle has posted a wRC+ of 90 or lower over its last 21 games.
The Yankees offense has not been much better, but they are making far more hard contact and barreling the ball over that same stretch. Plus, with how well Max Fried has looked, there is no chance I am backing Logan Gilbert and the Frozen Nine.
Reds vs White Sox: Reds (+122)
Reds win probability: 45%
This one is tough because not only are Davis Martin and Andrew Abbott struggling, but both offenses are, too. The best option is to back the underdog. I am not going to pay juice to back a pitcher with a 10.50 ERA over his last three outings, especially with an offense that owns a 28% strikeout rate and just a 6.3% barrel rate.
Give me the Reds at +122, as there is a ton of value backing Cincinnati against Martin.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays: Red Sox (-153)
Red Sox win probability: 60%
Payton Tolle is the guy who will revive this Red Sox team and get them out of this funk.
The Red Sox southpaw has been unbelievable over his last five outings, posting a 3.38 ERA, 2.02 xERA, and 1.20 WHIP. He has also done a great job limiting hard contact and barrels.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays send future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer to the mound. The veteran owns a 9.82 home ERA and 1.68 WHIP while allowing a 46.58% hard-hit rate and 13.70% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
Pay the juice. Red Sox or nothing.
Cubs vs Nationals: Cubs (-130)
Cubs win probability: 56%
With how hot the Chicago Cubs have been over the last few weeks, it's hard to have any confidence in backing Cade Cavalli and the Nationals against them. Kevin Gausman has been fantastic of late, and I do not see regression coming.
Cavalli, on the other hand, sports a 4.69 xERA and 1.33 WHIP while allowing nearly a 13% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
At $1.30 for an offense that has posted a 128 wRC+ and .820 OPS over the last week, the Cubs are well worth paying the juice.
Phillies vs Twins: Twins (-104)
Twins win probability: 51%
People will see the Phillies as a dog against Taj Bradley and automatically hammer the Phillies. However, Bradley has been solid, especially at home, where he owns a 3.07 xERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 28.76% strikeout rate.
The Phillies send out veteran Aaron Nola, who owns a 5.47 ERA on the season and a 4.50 ERA over his last five starts.
With both offenses humming, I want to back the team with the arm I trust more.
Rangers vs Angels: Angels (+147)
Angels win probability: 40%
I am willing to fade Jacob deGrom on the road, especially when we are getting a delicious price for the Angels to secure the win. If they are going to give us the deGrom tax while he sports a 5.48 ERA and 1.70 WHIP, allowing a 52% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate over his last five starts, fine by me.
Have we not noticed how well Angels right-hander Walbert Urena has been pitching? Over his last five starts, he owns a 2.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP while allowing just a 33% hard-hit rate and 1.61% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
Neither offense has been too hot over the last few weeks, but I am fully leaning on the price and Urena to continue to shove.
Brewers vs Dodgers: Dodgers (-135)
Dodgers win probability: 57%
Some will see the pitching matchup, see Roki Sasaki's name, and immediately fade the Dodgers in this spot. In reality, the Dodgers right-hander has improved drastically over his last five starts, posting a 2.40 ERA, 2.58 xERA, and 0.97 WHIP while limiting hard-hit balls and barrels during that stretch.
On the other side, Shane Drohan has regressed over his last five starts, posting a 5.83 ERA while allowing an 11.11% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
The Dodgers' bats seem to be coming alive as of late, while the Brewers offense has cooled. I like the hometown team to take Game 1 of this series.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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