Cubs vs Indians Picks and Predictions: Cubs Ruin Rookie's First MLB Start

The Cubbies are averaging 5.45 runs per game over their last 11 contests, and rank 10th in OPS against lefties this year—and face Cleveland rookie southpaw Sam Hentges today.

May 12, 2021 • 12:15 ET
Joc Pederson Eric Sogard Chicago Cubs MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Despite sporting a lineup that would struggle to hit water if it fell out of a boat, the Cleveland Indians have done what they have always done and used their fantastic pitching to win 11 of their last 14 games.

Now, they go for the mini-sweep of the Chicago Cubs when they host them in a matinee matchup this afternoon as Sam Hentges hopes to join the long line of great Cleveland pitchers to make his first career start.

Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Indians on Wednesday, May 12, with first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET.

Cubs vs Indians game info

Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Date: Wednesday, May 12, 2021
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
TV: BSGL, MSN

Cubs vs Indians odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

The Indians opened as modest -115 favorites Tuesday night at Drafkings and have since sped out to -143, where the moneyline rests at 12:15 p.m. ET. However, the betting splits tell a very different story, with ticket count and money both in the 2/1 range on the Cubs. The total dipped from 9 (Under -118) to 8.5 (Under -118), with the Over getting 61 percent of tickets/54 percent of money.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Cubs vs Indians betting preview

Starting pitchers

Zach Davies (2-2, 6.30 ERA): After not pitching more than four innings in each of his first five starts with the Cubs, Davies finally had a vintage Davies start. The soft-tossing right-hander started hitting his spots with his sinker and scattered five hits over seven scoreless frames against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Sam Hentges (1-0, 5.00 ERA): Hentges was scheduled to make his first career start last week but Cleveland went with an opener in front of him against the Kansas City Royals on May 4. But the lefty will get the call in this one and has a 5.00 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in four relief appearances for Cleveland this season.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cubs: Javier Baez SS (Questionable), Kris Bryant 3B (Questionable), Jake Marisnick OF (Out), Ian Happ OF (Out), Nick Hoerner 2B (Out), Dan Winkler RP (Out), Roman Wick RP (Out), Jonathan Holder RP (Out).
Indians: Cam Hill RP (Out), Roberto Perez C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Over is 4-0 in the Cubs' last four games versus a left-handed starter and 6-1 in Cleveland's last seven games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Indians.

Moneyline pick

Cleveland has always been known for having great starting pitching but the bullpen has arguably been the best in the big leagues this season—and is a big reason they have improved their record to 19-14 and sit just a half-game back of the Chicago White Sox in the American League Central.

But those are big shoes to fill for Hentges, who has had trouble finding the zone with his breaking stuff, resulting in his fastball getting hit hard. Now, he has to deal with what has been an inconsistent but talented Cubs lineup.

The Cubbies, while still ranking 23rd in average, have actually picked it up of late, plating 5.45 runs per game over their last 11 games. Chicago also ranks 10th in OPS against left-handers this season.

The Cubs counter with Davies, who was able to shake off a rough start to the season his last time out and should have a chance to carry that momentum over to face a Cleveland team that ranks 29th in batting average and 23rd in OPS.

With the edge in starters going to the Cubbies, we like them to build a lead early and not look back.

PREDICTION: Cubs (-105)

Over/Under pick

While we like the Cubs to win this game that doesn’t mean Cleveland will go scoreless in this one. Davies still owns a 6.30 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP for the season and then hands the ball to a bullpen that can be called “questionable” at best.

While Cleveland does not hit for average, it has scored 5.0 runs per game during this 14-game stretch where it has gone 11-3. The Tribe also ranks 10th in the MLB in home runs per game.

As noted, the Cubs will have a chance to put up some runs against the Cleveland rookie starter, so we like them to do the scoring early while Cleveland will respond in the second half of the game—not only to make Cubs backers sweat but send this game Over at the same time.

PREDICTION: Over 9 (-110)

Cubs vs Indians betting card

  • Cubs (-105)
  • Over 9 (-110)

Picks made on 5/11/2021 at 11:16 p.m. ET

MLB parlays

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